ChainCatcher 消息，Gate CBO Kevin Lee 就近期中东局势发布最新文章《战争，战争从未改变⋯⋯宏观市场要怎么走？》，指出地缘冲突本身并不会改变市场的基本运行逻辑，真正决定资产中期方向的，是冲突持续后对通胀路径的影响以及央行政策取向的变化。
Kevin 表示，在冲突爆发后的数小时至数日内，原油通常率先大幅波动，市场定价的是供应中断的尾部风险；黄金随即启动，兼具避险与通胀对冲属性；股票市场短期承压，VIX 快速上行，板块分化显著。
进入数日至两周阶段，若能源供应未持续受损，油价与风险溢价往往回吐，股票与加密资产随风险情绪修复而反弹；但若高油价维持时间拉长，通胀预期将被系统性抬升，资产定价逻辑由交易层面转向宏观层面。
文章进一步强调，真正改变趋势的不是冲突发生当日的市场反应，而是几周后逐步显现的通胀数据与政策预期。在更长周期内，市场将围绕通胀演化路径、货币政策可信度与经济增长前景重新定价。历史经验反复证明，在高不确定性环境中，情绪化决策往往成本高昂，理解传导顺序、尊重周期规律，才是穿越波动的关键。
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