下周宏观展望:美以联手引爆「中东火药桶」,周五非农数据公布

BlockBeats 消息,2 月 28 日,美伊冲突今日彻底爆发,下周美伊地缘紧张局势将充满变数,全球市场将在高度不确定性与避险情绪交织中震荡前行。

分析人士指出:伊朗的报复手段除了直接的导弹齐射外,还可能包括在霍尔木兹海峡布雷——这一全球石油贸易的咽喉要道去年承担了全球 30% 的海运石油贸易。然而,分析人士认为,考虑到主要石油进口国的经济影响,伊朗可能会更倾向于指挥胡塞武装或伊拉克什叶派民兵等代理人,对区域内的能源基础设施或美方外交机构发动精准打击。

除地缘局势外,下周主要宏观事件如下:

周一 22:45,美国 2 月标普全球制造业 PMI 终值;周一 23:00,美国 2 月 ISM 制造业 PMI。

周二 22:55,FOMC 永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表讲话。

周三 00:55,2026 年 FOMC 票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利发表讲话;周四 03:00,美联储公布经济状况褐皮书;周三 21:15,美国 2 月 ADP 就业人数;周三 22:45,美国 2 月标普全球服务业 PMI 终值;周三 23:00,美国 2 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI。

周四 20:30,美国 2 月挑战者企业裁员人数;周四 21:30,美国至 2 月 28 日当周初请失业金人数、美国 1 月进口物价指数月率;周四 23:00,美国 2 月全球供应链压力指数。

周五 21:30,美国 2 月失业率、美国 2 月季调后非农就业人口、美国 1 月零售销售月率。

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