The Federal Reserve dot plot is about to be released. What will be the future direction of interest rate policy? It is now early 2026, and the current federal funds rate remains in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The dot plot from December last year signaled that only a 25 basis point rate cut was planned for the entire year of 2025, followed by a pause — like a high-performance car suddenly braking, investors are still waiting for further easing policies. According to the Fed’s latest projections, there will be only one 25 basis point rate cut this year, with the rate hovering around 3.4% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, inflation remains sticky at 2.4%, and GDP growth stays at 2.3%. From these data, the Fed is clearly not in a hurry to cut rates significantly. What does Wall Street think? Opinions vary widely. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect two rate cuts#数字资产动态追踪 in March and June(, bringing rates down to 3.00%-3.25%. But JPMorgan is more cautious, expecting only one cut. Some more extreme voices talk about zero rate cuts, while others dream of a substantial 150 basis point cut. There are also bets that the new Fed Chair Powell will push for aggressive easing — after all, his term ends in May. Optimists like Moody’s are counting on economic weakness and political pressure to drive three 75 basis point rate cuts, but the reality tells a different story: inflation remains sticky, and economic resilience persists, meaning rate cuts will be cautious and slow. The real test will be the FOMC meeting on January 27-28. The decision made at this meeting will have a profound impact on the markets — not only affecting traders’ expectations but also directly influencing borrowing costs and the risk premium of crypto assets. Everyone is waiting. Hawkish or dovish, this time a clear answer will be given. )$BTC $SOL

#数字资产动态追踪 Will there really be a rate cut in January? Wake up, it's time to get prepared! The latest data from CME FedWatch Tool has been released, and the results caught many off guard—only a 14.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year. In other words, this number can be practically ignored. Conversely, the probability of holding rates steady is as high as 85.1%. Most likely, the Fed will keep rates unchanged. For those eagerly expecting a "New Year Rate Cut Red Envelope," it's like a cold shower. **How will this ultimately affect the crypto market?** Several real-world questions stand before us: **First, the enthusiasm for long positions at the beginning of the year has been directly dampened.** Many entered the market with the expectation that the Fed would loosen policy and liquidity would be abundant. Now that expectations have been dashed, there’s no reason for additional funds to enter in the short term. Major players are watching and waiting—who wants to take the lead in buying? Chips are starting to change hands and consolidate, and the market lacks momentum. **Second, the mountain of high interest rates still looms overhead.** As long as there is no clear timetable for a rate cut, tightening policies will continue to exert pressure. Risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which rely on loose liquidity, are now losing that support. Short-term rebounds are becoming more difficult, and mainstream cryptocurrencies face ongoing pressure. **Third, focus should shift to March.** A rate cut in January is now basically unlikely. The next key event is the Federal Reserve meeting in March. That’s when the market will truly start to battle, and the current volatility is just the prelude. **In summary: don’t wait for January’s favorable conditions.** The next phase is to "watch for signals." Until the rate cut path is fully clarified, don’t expect a violent upward surge. It’s more likely to be a range-bound oscillation with chips rotating—blindly chasing the rise will only turn you into cannon fodder. **Final advice:** Stay cautious, don’t be led by daily fluctuations. Wait for genuine trading signals before considering action. Steadiness is always better than gambling on luck.

#数字资产动态追踪 In this rebound, $BNB $ETH $DOGE still have potential. Especially for $ETH, from a technical perspective, the 8500 level is a key resistance, but if it can hold steady, the bullish momentum could be even stronger. Overall market sentiment remains, as long as the mainstream coins don't falter, the story of this rally is far from over.