Odaily星球日报讯 美国 Citizens Bank 最新报告指出，预测市场（Prediction Markets）正在快速增长，当前行业年化收入规模已超过 30 亿美元，并有望在 2030 年前达到 100 亿美元，成为一种新兴资产类别。
报告显示，预测市场交易量持续上升。今年 1 月市场成交量较 12 月增长超过 40%，2 月仍保持类似水平，尽管传统体育赛事赛季结束后通常预期会出现回落。分析认为，这一趋势反映出预测市场正在从小众博彩工具向成熟金融市场转型。
Citizens Bank 认为，交易量增长、更完善的市场结构以及机构投资者的初步参与，是推动行业发展的关键因素。目前部分机构已开始以数据使用者和流动性提供者身份进入市场，为更广泛的机构采用奠定基础。
预测市场允许交易者对选举结果、利率决议或并购审批等离散事件风险进行定价和对冲，相比指数期货或期权等代理工具可以降低基差风险，并提供实时的概率信号。
分析师指出，预测市场的发展路径类似于早期的衍生品市场和数字资产行业，即从散户主导流动性逐步过渡到做市商和机构资金参与。目前代表性平台包括受监管的事件合约交易所 Kalshi 以及去中心化预测市场 Polymarket，行业整体正逐步走向主流金融体系。
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