[市场分析]软件股反弹,金融股暴跌……受"低迷"经济指标影响 债券买盘扩大·降息预期升温

BTC4,77%

当地时间11日,美国股市中,小企业乐观指数下滑和零售销售疲软等经济指标恶化对债券市场构成利好,推升了降息预期。另一方面,股市中AI相关担忧蔓延至金融股,投资者间的神经战持续。

债券走强,降息预期扩大至60个基点

美国宏观经济意外指数大幅下滑,令市场对今年降息的预期升至60个基点。受此影响,国债收益率盘中明显下跌,尤其是长期债券表现强势,收益率曲线呈现牛市趋平现象。

AI恐慌,席卷金融股

高盛交易员表示,“对AI头条风险的担忧似乎已达到顶峰”,相关询问激增。尤其是资产管理公司(SCHW, AMP, LPLA, RJF, SF)在没有特别原因的情况下暴跌。

市场因"Altruist推出基于AI的税收规划功能"的消息扩散而出现抛售。但高盛的克里斯蒂安·德格拉塞分析称:“该产品并非取代顾问,而是辅助工具”,“看来市场只是看到提及AI和咨询公司的头条新闻,并未准确把握内容就迅速行动了。”

投资者最常问的问题是"下一个目标是什么?"。所幸软件股从低点反弹8.5%,走势趋于稳定。

散户投资者,大规模逢低买入

Vanda Research数据显示,散户投资者正大规模进行逢低买入。主要指数早盘上涨后,午后回吐涨幅,仅道琼斯指数收于历史新高,表现占优。

纳斯达克指数未能守住100日移动平均线,标普500指数则再次触及7000点"伽马墙"后下跌。

比特币跌破7万美元

比特币在美国交易时段受大型科技股反弹提振上涨,但未能完全收复前夜暴跌的失地,跌破7万美元。不过,永续期货资金费率恢复正常,表现较2月6日恐慌时期更为稳定。

调整结束了吗…专家态度谨慎

散户投资者普遍认为科技股调整已结束,但高盛的彼得·卡拉汉警告称:“尽管大型科技股近几个月表现落后市场约6个百分点,但相较于过去的非事件性调整(下跌10-12%),仍有进一步下跌空间。”

市场注意力现已转向明日(12日)将公布的就业指标。

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