2月28日消息，比特币（BTC）在本周经历剧烈震荡，自2月24日以来价格一度从6.66万美元下探至6.25万美元，随后于2月25日快速反弹触及7万美元，但涨势未能延续。截至发稿时，比特币回落至6.6万美元附近，24小时跌幅约3.25%，市场短线情绪再度承压。
部分市场声音将本轮波动归因于做市机构与宏观资金的短期操作，但AMBCrypto指出，当前的抛压并非偶发，而是始于2025年10月中旬的周期性调整延续。尽管近期卖压有所减弱，但从结构上看，比特币尚未进入全面修复阶段。
衍生品层面，2月份持续出现负资金费率，反映空头仍占据主动，价格反弹后快速回落，显示多头信心不足。与此同时，链上周期指标出现明显分化。
加密分析师 Axel Adler Jr 提到，比特币的 MVRV Z-Score 处于异常区间。截至目前，该指标为 -2.28，2月5日一度下探至 -3.38，明显低于2018年和2022年周期底部水平。这意味着比特币价格相对于链上实际价值处于统计意义上的极端低估状态。分析认为，比特币ETF的普及抬高了整体成本基础，可能放大了该指标的偏离幅度。
不过，情绪类指标并未同步触底。当前 NUPL 为 0.197，仍处于“希望”区间，历史经验显示，真正的周期底部往往出现在该指标跌破 0 之后。AMBCrypto此前判断，若出现更深层次的市场出清，时间窗口可能仍需数月。
长期持有者数据同样值得警惕。LTH MVRV 目前为 1.61，虽然仍高于盈亏平衡线，但在短期走弱背景下，比特币回踩6万美元并非低概率事件。一旦跌破该区间，或触发更大规模的被动抛售，市场将面临真正的压力测试。
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