#数字资产动态追踪 Fear index hits a bottom of 17, but that may not necessarily be a bad thing. ❄️ Last week, the net outflow in the crypto market reached $190 million, and investor sentiment clearly cooled down. However, what's interesting is—where did the money go? On-chain data speaks volumes: The frequency of Bitcoin's "large single transactions" has significantly increased, which usually indicates that big players are moving chips around. The Solana ecosystem has recently attracted a lot of emerging capital attention, and there is also quiet capital flowing in the over-the-counter market. Changes in liquidity reveal a signal—what is the market brewing? At the current price levels, what are institutions and whales doing? Are they accumulating at lows or waiting for opportunities in a calm downtrend? On the macro level, things are even more complex. Federal Reserve policy directions and geopolitical uncertainties are pushing the market to find a new equilibrium. Interestingly, many investment institutions are not entirely pessimistic about the future market. $BTC $ETH $SOL, in this wave of market movement, which is the "smart money" truly targeting? Or, in this current fear point, is it an opportunity or a trap?

#数字资产动态追踪 Will Bitcoin fall or just adjust in 2026? The four-year cycle gives you the answer Bitcoin has a pattern — halving every four years. The halving in April 2024 has already happened, and according to historical trends, 2025 is typically a year of main upward movement. Now that the year is ending, let’s look ahead to how 2026 might unfold. History shows that the second year after a halving often experiences a correction. Looking at the data: 2014, 2018, 2022 — all these years followed that pattern. So, 2026? Most likely, it will be a phase of 'debt reduction' and 'volatility shakeout.' Let’s put it this way — 2024 is the preparation phase, 2025 is the big celebration, 2026 is the time to clean up after the party. Don’t think about using 100x leverage to turn things around by 2026. In this market environment, it’s likely to teach you a lesson. But on the other hand, does that mean there’s no chance in 2026? Not at all. When the tide goes out, shells are cheapest. The key is to know how to read it. **Two indicators to watch closely:** First, the MVRV indicator. Think of it as the market’s thermometer. The peak in 2025 is that spike. If the current MVRV starts to decline, it indicates the market is 'cooling off.' What to wait for in 2026? For it to return to the green safe zone. As long as it’s still high, don’t rush to go all-in — that’s like catching a flying knife in midair. Second, keep an eye on the Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply. Simple logic: bull markets are driven by retail investors, bear markets by institutions. What to watch in 2026? Those whales holding coins for over a year. Prices are falling, but the wallets of those 'old whales' are actually increasing — that’s a signal. It shows smart money is starting to buy the dip. $BTC

#Strategy加码BTC配置 January 1 BTC Market Quick Read (As of 12:16, quote around 88,500 USD) **How to view this wave of market?** During the holiday period with low liquidity, Bitcoin has been repeatedly testing the 87,000–89,000 range. The daily chart shows some resistance, but the hourly chart still has some momentum, and the 4-hour chart is in a consolidation mode. The key point is whether 88,800 can be broken through; 87,000 is the bottom line. **Key numbers to remember** Looking up: 88,800 (4-hour resistance) → 90,000 (integer level) → 92,000 (mid-term resistance) Looking down: 87,000 (intraday support) → 86,000–86,500 (moving average fortress) → 85,769 (100-week moving average, strong support) → 82,000 (if broken, watch here) **Current technical situation** The daily chart is somewhat weak: below the 30-day moving average, 7-day and 30-day moving averages are in a bearish alignment, RSI around 41 (bearish), MACD shows a death cross with decreasing momentum, indicating the downward force is weakening, but a bullish reversal signal has not yet appeared. The 4-hour chart is in consolidation: the 88,800 level is tightly capped above, with support at 87,800 below, RSI in neutral territory, no clear direction. The hourly chart is relatively stronger: RSI leaning bullish, MACD shows a small golden cross, but this short-term bullishness can easily be reversed by liquidity. **How to operate reliably** *Intraday strategy* Buy the dips and sell the rallies. Enter small long positions in batches around 87,500–88,000, with stop-loss below 87,000, targeting 88,800. If near 88,800 gets pressured, consider a light short position with a stop at 90,000, targeting 87,800. Remember to keep single position size under 10%, trade quickly, and avoid greed. *Slightly longer-term strategy* Looking at 1–2 weeks, consider gradually accumulating in the 86,000–88,000 range, but total position should not exceed 30%. Focus on defending the 85,769 100-week moving average; if broken, reduce positions and wait. Conversely, if the price stabilizes above 90,000, consider adding positions with an eye on 92,000. *Risk control is the most important* Liquidity during holidays is poor, so strict stop-loss execution is essential. Never hold heavy positions or use high leverage. Also, pay attention to ETF fund flow changes, as they are increasingly influencing the market.