2月13日消息，地缘政治紧张局势持续冲击全球风险资产。本周以来，金融市场市值蒸发约1200亿美元，主要股指回落至大选前水平。避险情绪升温之下，黄金先行反弹，但在2月12日却出现单日3.19%的回落，显示资金情绪仍在快速切换。
同一交易日，比特币下跌1.2%，美股标普500指数下挫1.57%，市场呈现同步走弱态势。彭博社披露，俄罗斯重新扩大美元在跨境结算中的使用，这一动向被视为全球货币格局的重要信号。技术层面看，美元指数在经历一年多的回调后，已回到2022年区间，潜在的反弹空间可能增强美元资产吸引力。
不过，美元走强往往抑制风险资产表现。债券收益率上升，使比特币等高波动资产的性价比下降，短期内难以形成明显上行动力。近期数据也反映出市场仍持谨慎态度，比特币ETF在短暂流入后再现2.76亿美元资金流出，机构买盘尚未形成持续趋势。
情绪指标同样偏弱。CEX Premium 指数自去年高点回落后，一直未能转为正值，表明北美买盘信心不足。但在结构层面，大型机构仍在累积仓位。2026年以来，某主流CEX及 Strategy 等机构合计增持超过4.2万枚比特币，为6万美元上方提供了关键支撑。
当前，比特币正处于情绪与结构博弈的阶段。若宏观不确定性缓解、资金风险偏好回升，价格有望突破区间；反之，美元进一步走强，或将继续压制短期表现。市场焦点已从单一技术指标，转向全球资本流向与宏观叙事的变化。
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