Encryption "No Man's Land": Cyclical signals have emerged, but most people are oblivious.

Original Title: The Forgotten Phase: Why the Crypto Market Might Be Stuck Between Cycles

Original Author: Christina Comben

Source of the original text:

Reprint: Mars Finance

Key points:

The cryptocurrency market may be neither in a bull market nor a bear market, but rather in a “forgotten mid-stage,” similar to the calm period after the end of quantitative tightening in 2019, which often signals the beginning of a new round of increases.

The end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening policy, along with similar market risk rating levels, indicates that the cryptocurrency market is in a consolidation phase rather than a precursor to a crash.

Despite short-term fluctuations, pro-crypto regulations, the launch of ETFs, and large-scale adoption by institutions have made the market foundation in 2025 far more solid than in 2019.

Market status: an indefinable state

“Is it a bull market or a bear market now?” — This is the most fervently discussed question in the crypto market, which may no longer be applicable by the end of 2025. As traders and analysts attempt to label the current market, they find that this market refuses to be simply defined.

Cryptocurrency prices have failed to reproduce the parabolic rise of 2021, but they are also far from the despair of a true bear market. So, what exactly has happened?

Crypto trader Dan Gambardello interprets this: We may be in the “forgotten chapter” of the cycle.

This calm phase is reminiscent of the period from July to September 2019: at that time, the market was consolidating sideways, the Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening, and the crypto market seemed to have entered a strange stagnation before brewing its next big move.

The Ghost of 2019

Looking back at the crypto news from July 2019: The Federal Reserve officially announced the end of quantitative tightening, a policy shift that marked a subtle yet significant change in global liquidity.

In September, a few months later, the policy tightening officially came to an end. This just paved the way for a subsequent mild increase, ultimately triggering the market explosion of 2020-2021.

History seems to be repeating itself. The Federal Reserve has once again announced that it will end quantitative tightening in December 2025. During both periods, macro liquidity has started to shift, but the market's confidence in crypto prices has not kept pace.

“The news of the end of quantitative tightening has just been announced,” Gambardello said in the video, “this is neither the peak of a bull market nor the bottom of a bear market, but rather an ambiguous zone in between the two.”

This “intermediate state” is often overlooked in crypto news, yet it is precisely the key phase of the cycle reset. In 2019, Bitcoin's risk score hovered around 42, almost identical to the current score of 43. Although the prices are different, the market sentiment shows a similar uncertainty.

The value of risk indicators and patience in the cryptocurrency market

“If you believe that the end of QT will bring a liquidity boost, consider gradually building your position during any pullbacks before December 2025,” Gambardello suggested.

The AI-driven system he developed, called “Zero,” suggests rational deployment of funds, identifying risk areas rather than chasing market momentum.

He pointed out that the risk model score for Ethereum in 2019 was 11, while it is now 44. Cardano's score is 29. These numbers, derived from volatility and sentiment data, help macro investors plan their entry zones instead of trading volatility emotionally.

If the rating falls back to the range of 30 or 20, it may present a long-term holder's dream accumulation opportunity.

Glassnode data supports this model. During mid-term consolidations, the supply of long-term holders usually increases as speculative traders exit.

In 2019, the proportion of long-term Bitcoin holders exceeded 644% of the circulating supply; by 2025, this figure is approaching the same level again. Patience seems to be the secret weapon of calm investors.

What information does the chart reveal?

On the Ethereum weekly chart, the trend shows an astonishing similarity. In July 2019, shortly after the end of QT, Ethereum tested its 20-week moving average, rebounded, and then dipped again, only to truly recover several months later.

This summer, the same 20-50 weekly moving average crossover occurred again; this reminds us once more that cycles are always pulling between hope and exhaustion.

Gambardello explained that a warning signal will be whether Ethereum can break through the 20-week moving average. This is a short-term confirmation signal for determining whether the market will repeat the trends of 2019.

Otherwise, the total market value may temporarily drop to the 3 trillion USD range (compared to the current 3.6 trillion USD shown on CoinMarketCap), possibly repeating the script from years ago: the decline is enough to scare off retail investors, but not enough to end the upward trend.

Different decades, the same market psychology

Of course, 2025 is not a simple replica of 2019. The headlines in crypto news have changed, and the macro stage has undergone significant changes.

The pro-crypto U.S. government has taken office. The “Clear Act” and the “GENIUS Act” have essentially put an end to the regulatory uncertainty that kept investors awake at night. The Ethereum ETF is now trading.

Stablecoin issuers are under regulation. BlackRock now sits atop $25 billion in crypto ETF assets.

The power of such institutions will not disappear overnight. Instead, it has changed the rhythm of the market, transforming a market that once operated on adrenaline into a domain managed by spreadsheets and stress testing.

What we are witnessing may not be another bull or bear market, but rather a more subtle change: a transitional phase within a larger monetary climate system.

The Federal Reserve's shift in liquidity, the appointment of a new chair before May, and the normalization of regulations may collectively make 2025 a quiet preparation period before the next rise.

Gambardello does not believe that we are entering a bear market, but rather that we are in a “troubling consolidation phase.”

Yes, this is frustrating. But it may be necessary. If the 2019 cryptocurrency market taught us anything, it's that boredom is often the prelude to a breakthrough.