Halving, supply decline, bull market, altcoin season—this set of logic that has been circulating since Bitcoin's inception has almost become the belief system supporting the entire crypto market. But the performance in 2024 has broken this spell.
After the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin rose from $60,000 to a new high of $126,000, which looks impressive. But how does it compare historically? The gains in previous cycles were much larger. Even more painfully, altcoins have not shown any significant movement, and market enthusiasm is not as intense as in previous years.
This has triggered a repeatedly discussed question: Does the four-year cycle still exist?
We invited 7 seasoned industry practitioners to discuss this topic. They come from diverse backgrounds—investors managing $1 billion funds, on-chain data analysts, mining veterans, and early investors. Their perspectives form a three-dimensional picture of the current market situation.
What is the "four-year cycle"? Dig deeper to find out.