I stumbled upon something interesting recently - this old theory about periods when to make money that's been floating around investment circles for ages. It's based on work by Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer from the 1800s who actually sat down and analyzed historical economic patterns to map out financial cycles.



Back in 1875, Benner published this framework dividing time into three distinct periods. The guy noticed that markets seemed to follow repeating patterns, and he broke it down pretty clearly. First, there are the panic years - when financial crises hit and everything crashes. These tend to show up roughly every 16-18 years. Then you've got the boom years where prices peak and everyone's making money. And finally, the tough years when prices are bottomed out and that's when smart money starts accumulating.

What's wild is how specific his predictions got. He mapped out years like 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019 as major panic points. Meanwhile, he identified 1926, 1935, 1945, 1955, 1962, 1972, 1980, 1989, 1998, 2007, 2016 as peak selling opportunities. And for buying? The dips came around 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1985, 1995, 2006, 2011, and notably 2023.

The strategy is simple when you break it down. You buy during those hard times when prices are crushed - that's your accumulation window. You hold through the recovery. Then when prosperity hits and prices surge, that's when you sell and lock in gains. Before the next panic cycle kicks in, you're already positioned.

Looking at the current timeline, 2023 was supposed to be one of those golden buying periods according to Benner's model. Now we're in 2026, which is starting to show signs of being a peak year - a potential selling window if the theory holds. The really interesting part? 2035 shows up in both his panic and prosperity cycles, suggesting a potential inflection point where things could shift dramatically.

The intervals are pretty consistent once you see the pattern. Every 7-10 years you get a buying opportunity, roughly every 9-11 years the peaks arrive, and major panics recur about every 16-18 years. It's this cyclical rhythm that keeps repeating. Obviously, this is old theory and markets are more complex now, but it's fascinating how these periods when to make money keep showing up in the data. Whether you use it as a strict guide or just a reference point to think about market cycles, it's worth keeping this framework in mind when you're making decisions about your portfolio.
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