Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology firm Jan3, stated on March 1, 2026, that Bitcoin is currently undervalued relative to gold by approximately 24% to 66%, suggesting a potential price reversal.
Mow cited the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio’s Z-score, which measures deviation from historical averages, noting that readings below -2 have historically preceded major Bitcoin rallies, with the current Z-score standing at approximately -1.24. The analysis comes as gold futures for April delivery closed at $5,247.90 on February 28, while Bitcoin traded near $66,400 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions following strikes on Iran.
Bitcoin-to-Gold Z-Score Signals Historical Undervaluation
The Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio measures how many standard deviations the current ratio deviates from its historical mean. A Z-score of zero indicates alignment with the historical average, while negative values indicate undervaluation of Bitcoin relative to gold.
（Source: TradingView）
Mow highlighted that when this metric drops below -2, Bitcoin has historically experienced substantial price appreciation. The current Z-score of approximately -1.24 remains above this threshold but indicates significant relative undervaluation.
Historical data shows two previous instances where extreme Z-score readings preceded major Bitcoin rallies. In November 2022, amid the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, the Z-score fell below -3, and Bitcoin subsequently rallied over 150% in the following 12 months. During the March 2020 COVID-19 market crash, the metric dropped below -2 as Bitcoin reached approximately $3,717, followed by a surge exceeding 300% over the next year, culminating in the November 2021 all-time high near $69,000.
Analysts who conceptualized power-law bands for the BTC-gold ratio stated in January 2026 that “everything points to Bitcoin massively outperforming gold over the coming months” based on these valuation metrics. Historical patterns indicate that Bitcoin’s strongest price appreciation phases typically follow gold bull runs by two months to over a year.
Gold’s Record Highs Widen Valuation Gap with Bitcoin
Gold futures for April delivery closed at $5,247.90 on February 28, while tokenized gold PAX Gold traded at $5,404.14 at the time of reporting. Gold has risen more than 80% over the past year, benefiting from global uncertainty measured by the World Uncertainty Index, which has increased amid trade tariffs, domestic institutional disputes in the U.S., and rising tensions with China and Iran.
Mow characterized gold as “overextended” while Bitcoin remains significantly below its trend line relative to gold’s market capitalization and global money supply. This divergence has created what Mow describes as a 24% to 66% undervaluation gap for Bitcoin compared to its historical trend against gold.
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which measures the amount of gold equivalent to one Bitcoin, has declined approximately 55% from its late 2024 peak, placing Bitcoin in a technical bear market against gold for approximately 14 months. The ratio currently stands at levels last seen during previous market cycles.
Market Divergence: Bullish Z-Signal Versus Bearish Price Forecasts
Mow’s analysis presents a contrarian view to other market observers who forecast continued downside for Bitcoin amid geopolitical uncertainty. Some analysts project Bitcoin could decline toward $50,000, suggesting current price action may mirror the 2022 bear market structure.
Bitcoin fell over 50% from peak to trough, reaching a low near $60,000 before staging a limited recovery to approximately $66,400 following weekend developments in the Middle East. The decline coincided with outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, with approximately $7.8 billion exiting since November, representing about 12% of total ETF assets.
However, large-scale investors have treated the downturn as an accumulation opportunity. Abu Dhabi’s major investment firms added spot Bitcoin ETF exposure in mid-February 2026.
Mercado Bitcoin Analysis Suggests Potential March Bottom in Gold Terms
Market analysis examining Bitcoin’s potential bottom timeline through the lens of gold-denominated prices reveals divergent patterns. In U.S. dollar terms, Bitcoin’s most recent peak occurred in October 2025 at approximately $126,000. If the current cycle follows historical patterns lasting 12 to 13 months, the downturn could extend into late 2026.
However, when priced in gold, the timeline shifts. Bitcoin reached its high against gold in January 2025. Applying the same 12- to 13-month pattern would place a potential bottom around February 2026, with a recovery possibly beginning in March.
Analysts note that Bitcoin weakened against gold sooner than it did against the dollar as capital rotated into bullion amid global uncertainty. Investors are advised to employ dollar-cost averaging strategies during periods of market fear, as historical data suggests that “buying during periods of fear has been more effective than buying during euphoria.”
FAQ: Bitcoin and Gold Valuation
What is the Bitcoin-to-gold Z-score and what does it indicate?
The Z-score measures how many standard deviations the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio deviates from its historical average. A Z-score below -2 has historically preceded major Bitcoin rallies. The current Z-score of approximately -1.24 indicates Bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold but has not yet reached the extreme -2 threshold that triggered previous major rallies.
How much is Bitcoin undervalued compared to gold according to Samson Mow?
Samson Mow estimates Bitcoin is undervalued by approximately 24% to 66% relative to its trend line against gold’s market capitalization and global money supply. He characterizes gold as “overextended” at current record highs above $5,200 per ounce.
What are the conflicting price forecasts for Bitcoin?
Bullish analysts point to historical Z-score patterns suggesting potential upside, with previous instances following extreme undervaluation producing 150% to over 300% gains in subsequent months. Bearish analysts cite geopolitical uncertainty, ETF outflows, and technical patterns resembling the 2022 bear market, with some forecasting a potential decline toward $50,000.
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