Whales are aggressively increasing their holdings; can this help Bitcoin break through?

Article: Blockchain Knight

The current Bitcoin market shows a stark contradiction, with the supply side continuously tightening, whales aggressively accumulating, and exchange reserves hitting a seven-year low.

Correspondingly, the S&P 500 index has reached a record high, while Bitcoin has been consolidating for a long time, showing the most severe decoupling from traditional risk assets since 2020, with prices still 40% below the October 2025 peak, hovering in the $74,000-$76,000 range.

The tightening on the supply side is particularly prominent.

CryptoQuant data shows that over the past 30 days, whales have accumulated a total of 270k Bitcoins, marking the largest accumulation wave since 2013, while exchange Bitcoin reserves have fallen to their lowest since December 2017.

Adding to this, after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, block rewards decreased to 3.125 coins, significantly slowing the annual supply growth.

Currently, over 20.02 million coins have been mined (out of a maximum of 21 million), and the concentrated accumulation by whales further compresses the tradable market supply, creating a substantial shortage.

Meanwhile, ETF and corporate buying have shown a volatile recovery. The inflow of funds into the US spot Bitcoin ETF has been intermittent, with a single-day inflow of $471 million in April, followed by outflows, indicating overall demand remains unstable.

In terms of corporate holdings, Strategy continues to increase its position, currently holding 780,897 Bitcoins with an average cost of $75,577, further removing liquidity from the market through long-term holdings.

Contrasting with Bitcoin’s weakness, the S&P 500 has shaken off geopolitical concerns, reaching a record high, with market capitalization increasing by over $6 trillion since the March lows, mainly driven by the rise of tech stocks supported by AI infrastructure narratives, as well as macroeconomic benefits from easing geopolitical tensions and PPI data below expectations.

However, Bitcoin, traditionally a high-beta risk asset, has failed to benefit in tandem, with its weak correlation to the S&P 500 reaching a new high over four years.

The core reason is the ongoing outflow of on-chain funds, with only 7 out of 105 days in the first 2026 days showing positive market cap changes over 30 days, indicating systemic capital outflows that undermine recovery.

While institutional positioning shows signs of recovery, a cohesive force has yet to form. The Bitcoin options market’s bearish bias has weakened, and institutions are actively defending the key support level of $70,000, with ETF daily inflows once reaching $411.5 million.

However, spot buying remains cautious, with the market characterized by quick profit-taking and cautious positioning, making the recovery trend unstable.

The key to future movement lies in whether demand can keep pace with the tightening supply.

If Bitcoin can strongly break through the $76,000 resistance level, it may trigger a short squeeze, end the decoupling from the stock market, and move toward $80,000.

If it fails to break through, it will continue to consolidate in the $70,000-$76,000 range, with limited potential to release the tight supply.

Currently, the Bitcoin market has entered a sensitive phase, with whale accumulation and institutional positioning laying the groundwork for a future breakout, but macro sentiment and sustained capital inflows remain the core variables determining whether it can break out of consolidation.

It is worth noting that recently, the altcoin market has begun to show signs of recovery, but whether this can spread to the entire market remains to be seen, or it may be a fleeting moment.