This Beijing high school teacher Jiang Xueqin, who went viral, predicted America's defeat in advance.

Title: This Popular Beijing High School Teacher Jiang Xueqin Predicted America’s Defeat in Advance

Author: Lila and 2 others

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Reprinted from: Mars Finance

On March 21, renowned American media personality Tucker Carlson released his latest interview episode.

The guest was not a usual senator, retired general, or a prominent scholar from a Washington think tank, but a Chinese man named Jiang Xueqin. His daily role is teaching history and philosophy at a private high school called “Moon Exploration School” in Chaoyang District, Beijing.

The episode lasted over an hour, covering topics from the direction of the Iran war, to the possibility of Japan’s nuclear armament, Israel’s strategic calculations, the actual combat capabilities of U.S. ground forces, and the role played by Trump in all this.

To truly understand this episode, we need to start with Tucker Carlson.

The Lost Tucker Carlson

If someone asks who best represents the core soul of America in this era, Tucker Carlson is an unavoidable name.

He is one of America’s top political commentators. His show, Tucker Carlson Tonight, has long ranked first in viewership among American political programs and is the most important voice for the conservative camp.

More importantly, he is one of the key media allies of the MAGA movement. Trump regards him as “one of his own,” and during the 2024 election, they appeared together multiple times. Carlson is almost the loudest voice of the MAGA movement in the media arena.

But everything changed after the U.S.-Israel joint military strike against Iran in February.

Carlson publicly condemned the war, calling the joint strike “disgusting and extremely evil,” and explicitly stated, “This is Israel’s war, not America’s.” Trump immediately expelled him from MAGA: “Tucker has lost his way. He is not MAGA. MAGA is about making America great again, America First, and none of that is what Tucker stands for.”

Since then, Carlson has publicly claimed that the CIA is preparing to sue him under the charge of “acting as an unregistered foreign agent,” simply because he had text message contact with Iran before the outbreak of war.

This war has thus become a rift within the MAGA camp and the establishment: the establishment tries to salvage its declining influence through war, while some, represented by Carlson, believe it is digging their own graves. Trump expelling Carlson from MAGA is a microcosm of this internal split.

Carlson’s current situation is highly ironic: he has repeatedly predicted on his show that the “deep state” would use legal means to suppress dissenters. But now, he himself has become a dissenter.

At this critical moment, he invited Jiang Xueqin—a Beijing high school teacher who predicted two years ago that the U.S. would lose this war—to appear on his show.

Three Predictions That Made Him Famous

In May 2024, Biden was still leading the White House, Trump had not yet survived two assassination attempts that summer, and the election was far from clear. During a seemingly ordinary class, Jiang Xueqin made three predictions for his students:

1. Trump will win the November election

2. The U.S. will become involved in a war with Iran

3. The U.S. will lose this war, forever changing the global order

Looking back, the first two predictions have already come true:

On November 5, 2024, Trump defeated Harris to win the U.S. presidential election.

On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a joint military strike against Iran.

And the third prediction is still unfolding.

All these classroom contents were posted on his YouTube channel “Predictive History.” No subtitles, no editing—only the neat Jiang teacher and a blackboard. According to him, the channel was inspired by Isaac Asimov’s concept of “psychohistory”: believing that history has structural laws that can be analyzed through mathematical models and group psychology to predict future trends.

After the Iran-U.S. war broke out, this old video from 2024 went viral across the internet, with Americans expressing amazement in the comments. This also made Jiang Xueqin famous, with the video surpassing 4 million views in a single day and the channel accumulating over 2 million subscribers.

Will the U.S. lose this Middle East war?

In 415 BC, Athens, immersed in its imperial peak dream, recklessly regarded Sicily as an easy target. They dispatched the most luxurious expedition fleet in history, but due to supply line disruptions and local support collapsing, an entire generation of the most elite young men and nearly all their savings were buried in that distant land.

This is Jiang Xueqin’s historical analogy for the potential fate of “U.S. involvement in Iran.”

His core argument is that the U.S. military is essentially a Cold War-era “muscle display” system—expensive, focused on technological deterrence rather than resilience for prolonged attrition warfare. This mismatch manifests in absurd asymmetries, such as using multi-million-dollar interceptors to counter a $50,000 drone.

After the war began, Jiang still believed Iran had the advantage. In an interview on March 3 with the U.S. independent news and political commentary program “Breaking Points,” he pointed out Iran’s sinister card: attacking Gulf desalination facilities to cripple the entire petrodollar system within weeks.

Kuwait gets 90% of its drinking water from desalination, Saudi Arabia 70%. If these facilities are systematically destroyed, it will deepen regional instability and trigger humanitarian crises and migration waves in the Gulf.

Just five days after the program aired, on March 8, Iran attacked a desalination plant in Bahrain.

On Tucker Carlson’s show, Jiang’s predictions go even further and are more unsettling:

The modern global economy is built on the premise that energy is cheap and readily available. That premise is now collapsing.

Jiang believes the Iran war will closely resemble the Ukraine conflict: dragging on into a war of attrition. The U.S. cannot withdraw because, once it does, the only regional power capable of filling the security vacuum is Iran. About one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz; if Gulf countries side with Iran, the petrodollar system will collapse.

His statement is very direct: “The current U.S. economy is essentially a Ponzi scheme, sustained by foreign countries continuously buying dollars.” The U.S. is burdened with nearly $39 trillion in debt, relying for decades on oil-producing countries settling oil in dollars and recycling that money into the U.S. economy. If this cycle breaks, the consequences will be catastrophic.

Based on this judgment, he outlined three major trends he believes will occur regardless of who wins: deindustrialization caused by expensive energy, countries being forced to rearm, and the return of mercantilism after the collapse of global supply chains.

He also predicts that to sustain the front lines, Trump is very likely to order nationwide conscription, which could trigger street riots, with the National Guard deployed. “So, unfortunately, the U.S. is very likely to experience years of factional violence,” he said on the program.

Under this logic, this year’s Oscar-winning film “War Again” may no longer be just a cinematic fiction but a final prelude to systemic collapse.

His Predictive Foundation

Jiang Xueqin’s personal growth trajectory itself is a cross-border practice history. At age six, he immigrated with his family to Canada, grew up in Toronto. With a scholarship, he entered Yale to major in English Literature. After graduation, he returned to China. Over nearly twenty years, he worked as a journalist, documentary director, UN project officer, and deeply involved in China’s educational reform.

In 2022, he returned to Beijing and joined Moon Exploration School. Its founder, Wang Xiqiao, born in the late 1990s, is also an active innovator in education.

The educational philosophy at Moon Exploration aligns with Jiang’s two-decade focus: abandoning subject-based grading, emphasizing solving real-world problems.

Jiang teaches a year-round Western philosophy course, guiding students through texts like “Gilgamesh,” Plato’s “Republic,” and Descartes’ “Meditations.” But what he truly aims to teach students is: to critically, objectively, and from a higher perspective, examine themselves and the world.

This is the underlying ability behind his three predictions—not just knowledge in a specific field, but a way of thinking that penetrates appearances and recognizes structural laws.

Those who understand the laws are rare in any era.

Jiang once said in class that a correct historical framework should do three things simultaneously: connect the past, explain the present, and predict the future. Only by doing all three can one approach the truth.

The flames from desalination plants, the cracks in the petrodollar—these are inevitable manifestations of structural forces reaching a critical point. Asimov’s “psychohistory” is fascinating because it believes that beneath chaos, history has its own grammar. His three predictions are a self-verification of this framework in reality.

But the framework itself does not provide answers. Perhaps this is why Jiang chooses to stay in the classroom—not because it is safe enough, but because there are still people willing to seriously ask questions.