On November 6th, the U.S. Supreme Court heard a pivotal case—whether it was lawful for Trump to impose tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act back then. Several conservative justices took turns questioning, clearly skeptical of the government's arguments. This signals that the judiciary might be setting clearer boundaries on the president’s trade powers.
The White House and Treasury Department remain relatively calm, publicly stating they trust the court will make the right decision. However, businesses have already started preparing for the worst, as the case could take months to resolve. Interestingly, even if the court rules against the government, Trump could potentially leverage other legal provisions to continue exerting pressure, meaning trade tensions are unlikely to ease in the short term.
If the current tariffs are overturned, the overall U.S. tariff rate could drop to around 6.5%, reducing the drag on GDP to about 0.6%. That sounds like a positive development, but the issue is...