#加密市场小幅下跌 77,000 to 77k range consolidating at the bottom, funds lying flat, waiting for a decision
In terms of market, after yesterday’s spike and pullback, BTC repeatedly tested the bottom in the 76,500–77,000 range, ETH moved in tandem between 2,280–2,320, with extremely diminished volume, a typical “weekend + news vacuum period” characteristic.
Last night, there was indeed a pulse reaching 79,400, which was institutions testing the selling pressure at the 80k level, and taking the opportunity to harvest a wave of high-leverage gains. The early morning 77,000 was just the residual effect of last night’s market, not a new offensive. The 77,000–78k zone is a strong resistance area.
ETF funds just shifted to net outflows yesterday, institutions are retreating, retail investors dare not buy in, naturally unable to hold.
What’s the outlook going forward?
Continue to watch for a sideways, slightly weak trend. Before the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (April 30), big funds are all pretending to be dead. If the Federal Reserve continues its hawkish stance (maintaining high interest rates longer), this rebound will be the last escape route for short-term investors, with support at $75,000. If broken, look toward $72,000.
On-chain data side
Bitcoin ETF net outflow of $263 million indicates institutions are temporarily retreating. Based on today’s on-chain signals, all are risk warnings. The market has not established its own trend, but is heavily influenced by news. After all, a daily net outflow of $263 million is a signal from the data we should pay attention to. Yesterday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a total net outflow of $263 million. This is the first time turning negative after nine consecutive days of inflows, a very poor signal.
Fidelity (FBTC) net outflow of $150 million, Grayscale (GBTC) net outflow of $46.63 million. These major institutions chose to take profits before the 80k level.
Of course, data can also be misleading; some data might be manipulated to look good for the market. What will happen exactly? As long as these ETFs don’t panic-sell, we can rest easy. Addresses holding 1,000+ BTC haven’t moved, but short-term holders are selling heavily in the $78,000–$80,100 range. Whales aren’t stepping in to buy, chips are just transferring between wallets, indicating big money is also watching and not planning to push hard at this level.
Perpetual contract funding rates have been negative for several days, and shorts are still holding on stubbornly. This structure can easily trigger a short squeeze surge, but also means that if longs weaken, a liquidation cascade will be very brutal. The market is holding on to “geopolitical expectations,” and the real test is Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. If an extreme situation occurs, the market will face a storm. The probability is small, but we must prepare for low-probability events.
News updates
Yesterday’s “phone gate” was all the rage, but today it was cooled down. Reuters reports that Trump is “dissatisfied” with Iran’s new proposal, believing it doesn’t address the core nuclear issues. The US insists nuclear issues must be dealt with early in negotiations, while Iran wants to delay them. This structural contradiction is unresolved, and the so-called “de-escalation” is all talk. The Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, Iran still insists on toll-based passage, and geopolitical risks remain unresolved.
This kind of “emotional rebound” is the most dangerous; institutions have quickly entered and exited, pocketing profits. Once negotiations collapse, the fall will be faster than anyone.
This Wednesday (April 30), the FOMC meeting, market odds favor maintaining interest rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range with a 99% probability. The focus isn’t on not raising rates but on not cutting them.
More importantly, this could be Powell’s last rate decision as Fed Chair, with his term ending on May 15.
In the context of oil prices still above $100 and complex inflation prospects, Powell is likely to continue hawkish rhetoric about “maintaining high interest rates longer,” which will directly crush liquidity expectations.
The current volatility is testing true long-term investors. Retail investors who can’t hold on will exit, leaving the remaining ones to share more of the cake in the bull market. Don’t worry about short-term ups and downs, don’t envy others’ short-term gains. Keep your core holdings of mainstream coins, hold enough cash, and wait for the Fed’s decision to land and the market to give a clear direction.
The above is for informational exchange only and does not constitute any investment advice!
