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- 🚀 ETH jumped to $4,600 this morning, up 8.69% in 24h!
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Has the Bitcoin Bull Run Ended? What Does This Legendary Index Say?
Here is the historical trend of Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, indicating whether the current price surge has ended or not. The MVRV ratio of Bitcoin may suggest the position of BTC in the current cycle In a recent post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju shared a chart illustrating a previous pattern in Bitcoin's MVRV Ratio. The MVRV Ratio refers to a popular on-chain metric that tracks the value that BTC investors hold (i.e., market capitalization) versus the value they initially put into the asset (realized capitalization). When the value of the ratio is greater than 1, it means that investors in general can be considered to be in a profitable state. On the other hand, when it is below the level, it implies the dominance of losses in the market. The MVRV Ratio version posted by Young Ju is not the regular version, but a modified version called "True MVRV". This version only takes into account the data of coins participating in certain trading activities over the past seven years. Coins that are older than seven years can be considered lost forever, either due to being forgotten or due to the loss of the wallet key. Therefore, True MVRV, excluding coins that are unlikely to return to circulation, can provide a more accurate picture of this field compared to the regular version of the data. Here is a chart showing the trend of this Bitcoin indicator throughout the history of this cryptocurrency:
As shown in the chart, Bitcoin True MVRV has risen to a relatively high level in this price increase, implying that the average investor is generating significant profits. According to history, the higher the profit of the holders, the higher the likelihood that they will participate in a mass sell-off with a higher profit-taking motive. Therefore, whenever the MVRV ratio is high, the likelihood of reaching the peak for BTC is very high. From the chart, it can be seen that peaks in previous cycles occurred when the indicator crossed a specific line. So far, this data has not come close to retesting this level in the latest era. According to CryptoQuant founder, the reason why the market capitalization has not increased beyond the actual capitalization is because there is still $7 billion flowing into the Bitcoin market every week. If the current cycle shows anything similar to previous cycles, then the actual MVRV is high but not too high, which may indicate that there is still room for BTC in the current price increase.