Data: Polymarket "The probability that WTI crude oil will fall to $75 in April 2026" has risen to 39%, up 25% in 24 hours

Mars Finance reports that the probability of Polymarket’s “WTI crude oil falling to $75 in April 2026” has surged significantly, now at 39%, up 25% in 24 hours.
As of now, the total trading volume of the Polymarket “WTI crude oil April 2026 price” event contract has exceeded $40 million.
The rules for this event contract are: if at any 1-minute K-line during the active month of WTI crude oil futures in April 2026, the “highest price” is equal to or higher than the listed price, then the market will be judged as “Yes”; otherwise, it will be judged as “No”.
Previously, the rules for the WTI crude oil March price prediction event contract were: if the official settlement price of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures contract in the current active month (near month) on any trading day is equal to or higher than the listed price on the last trading day of March 2026, then the market will be judged as “Yes”; otherwise, it will be judged as “No”.
U.S. President Trump has stated that negotiations regarding the Iran war will continue over the weekend.
When asked whether Iran would impose restrictions or tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said: “Absolutely not,” “There will be no tolls.”
Trump also previously said that there was some “quite good news” regarding Iran, but he refused to disclose more details.
“Twenty minutes ago, we heard some quite good news, and it seems that progress related to Iran in the Middle East is very smooth,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One.
When asked what the so-called good news was, Trump said: “You will hear about it. I think it’s supposed to happen. It’s only natural. And I think it will happen. We’ll see, but I believe it will happen.”