Bitcoin is still undergoing repeated testing. Currently, it is the second attempt to break through that critical resistance level, and whether it can hold this time is really important.

My previous judgment remains unchanged—there are at most three effective breakout opportunities at this level. If the first attempt fails, it’s just a test, which is normal. If the second attempt fails, it indicates that there is real selling pressure above. If the third attempt also fails to hold, then don’t expect any "consolidation"; what needs to be done is to accept the reality of a downward reaccumulation.

In the past few days, many people privately asked me the same question: in the worst-case scenario, where is the bottom of this Bitcoin correction?

I gave an answer yesterday—around 7.8 to 8, which can be considered a stage low point. I didn’t explain why at that time, but today I will thoroughly elaborate on this logic.

Why lock in at 7.8 to 8? It’s actually very simple—one sentence is enough: this is the current average cost line for miners.

Historically, Bitcoin has indeed fallen below the miners’ cost, but a quick review of the data reveals two patterns. The dips below the cost are very short-lived, generally not exceeding 1 to 2 weeks. The reasons are not complicated.

Miners are not playing with emotions; they are playing with cash flow. Their calculations are straightforward: electricity costs are real money, equipment depreciation happens daily, and hash rate itself equals cost. If the price remains below mining costs for a long time, mining becomes increasingly unprofitable the more you mine. What happens then? Some mining machines can only be shut down, leading to a decrease in hash rate, and the cost of network security actually increases.

The reason miners can still hold on is based on one premise: they believe that the long-term value of the network can eventually offset these short-term losses.

So the logic is here—prices can temporarily fall below miners’ costs, but they cannot operate below the cost line for the long term. This is not an emotional judgment; it is determined by the economic structure itself.

My short-term view on the current market is threefold:

First, we are currently testing the second resistance zone; this is a critical point, and we cannot simply overlook it.

Second, if all three attempts fail, then be mentally prepared to accept a downward shift to a new range and reaccumulation.

Third, the 7.8 to 8 range, from a structural perspective, is a very strong stage support line.

As for the big cycle or bull-bear transition theories, trying to forcibly draw these out now might seem a bit like armchair speculation. We will judge where the market is heading based on the current situation. Let’s first see the results of this pressure test, and the story will unfold from there.

The core is just these three dimensions: short-term structural analysis, medium-term cost considerations, and long-term valuation.