#数字资产动态追踪 Will the Federal Reserve really cut interest rates in 2026? Recently, the market has been buzzing about the "Annual Rate Cut Roadmap," which indeed sounds tempting—cutting 25 basis points in March, another in June, as if rate cuts are already scripted. But reality is often not that simple.

The Fed's decision-makers have been very clear recently: "No rush." The latest dot plot shows that the median expectation for rate cuts this year is only once, and some hawkish officials are even advocating for zero cuts. The market's probability of a rate cut in March has fallen below 40%, lower than your chances of drawing a hidden card.

Where's the problem? Inflation remains stickier than expected, and economic growth is still robust, giving Powell plenty of reasons to "wait and see." Any black swan event—such as a rebound in inflation, worsening geopolitical tensions, or a rapid shift in fiscal policy—could easily overturn the entire rate cut expectation.

From an asset allocation perspective, a genuine rate cut cycle would indeed boost the attractiveness of government bonds (stable income shouldn't be underestimated), and the valuation recovery space for tech growth stocks is also significant. As for cryptocurrencies? They are fundamentally driven by sentiment—soaring when rising, halving when falling. Investors with average risk tolerance should be cautious.

Core advice: Don't be fooled by stories of "bottom-fishing for quick riches." Keep an eye on economic data, control risk exposure, and prefer rational observation over blind betting. The trajectory of $BTC ultimately depends on macro fundamentals. Short-term emotional fluctuations are inevitable, but the medium- and long-term logic is the decisive factor.