Trading moment: Silver breaks through $75, RMB surpasses 7.0, Bitcoin awaits the $23.7 billion options test to decide the direction

Daily Market Highlights and Trend Analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Amid the Christmas holiday impact, liquidity in major global financial markets has significantly contracted. U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and various futures contracts are closed, and stock markets in multiple European countries are also shut, but key asset prices have not stagnated. In terms of exchange rates, the RMB has accelerated its appreciation since August, with offshore RMB briefly breaking the 7.0 level on December 25, marking the first time in over a year. Industrial Securities pointed out that this round of appreciation is not solely driven by a weakening dollar but reflects endogenous momentum from capital repatriation and increased foreign exchange settlement demand. Under the combined influence of “dollar easing push” and “capital inflow pull,” the RMB’s appreciation may still be at the beginning stage and could boost risk appetite in equity markets. Additionally, precious metals markets remain strong, with silver leading the way by breaking through $75/oz and rising for the fifth consecutive trading day, with an annual increase of nearly 161%. Gold also temporarily surpassed $4,530/oz, reaching a new all-time high. Looking ahead, market forecasts are generally optimistic: Wyckoff expects gold to reach a target price of $4,600 before year-end; renowned economist Jim Rickards even predicts that by the end of 2026, gold could reach $10,000, and silver might hit $200. Meanwhile, due to supply shortages and potential tariff threats, the London copper price has historically broken through $12,000 per ton. Citibank forecasts it could rise to $15,000 in a bull market scenario.

Against this backdrop, the only domestic publicly offered silver futures on exchange—Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures Securities Investment Fund (LOF)—has become a market focus. The fund once traded at a premium of up to 45% over its unit net value of 1.9278 yuan, reaching 2.804 yuan. After relaxing the subscription limit from 100 yuan to 500 yuan on December 19 to attract arbitrage funds, it was suddenly suspended on December 26 and announced that the limit would be reduced back to 100 yuan starting December 29. After resuming trading, the fund hit the limit down. Since resumption, the trading volume reached 260 million yuan, and the premium rate fell back to about 29.64%. Guoshang Fund researcher Bi Mengni pointed out that the direct cause of the price decline was arbitrage funds realizing gains through “off-market subscription—T+2 transfer to on-market sale.”

Bitcoin has been oscillating within the range of $85,000 to $90,000, a state largely attributed by many analysts to the upcoming annual options expiration on December 26. The nominal value of this expiration is between $23 billion and $28.5 billion. Analysts generally expect market pressure to ease after the expiration, potentially leading to a directional breakout. However, future trends remain divided. On one side, analysts like Michaël van de Poppe believe that the commodity market has accumulated significant momentum, and liquidity may shift elsewhere. With macroeconomic conditions easing, Bitcoin could break through the $90,000 resistance and move toward $100,000; on-chain data analyst Murphy notes that around 670,000 BTC have been accumulated near $87,000, forming a strong support zone; analyst Mark is also optimistic, expecting the price to reach $91,000.

On the other side, analysts led by Lennaert Snyder and Ted are cautious, believing that before a true breakout, the price may need to retest support near $85,000. Kapoor Kshitiz and CoinDesk’s analysis both indicate that Bitcoin has only traded in the $70,000–$80,000 range for 28 days, with weaker support, while the $30,000–$50,000 range has held for nearly 200 days with stronger support. If a correction occurs, the $70,000–$80,000 zone may require more time to consolidate. Looking ahead, Jeff Mei, CTO of BTSE, believes that if the Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts in Q1 2026, Bitcoin could fall to $70,000. However, if “hidden quantitative easing” continues, it could be driven by institutional funds to surge to $92,000–$98,000. Additionally, CryptoQuant researcher Axel Adler Jr. warns that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI has fallen to 56.5, close to the four-year average of 58.7; if it drops below 55, a deeper correction may ensue. Ali Charts states that Bitcoin takes about 1,064 days from market bottom to top, and about 364 days to fall from top to the next bottom. If historical patterns continue, the next bottom may appear in October 2026, with an estimated price of around $37,500, corresponding to an 80% retracement of the previous peak.

Ethereum remains oscillating between $2,700 and $3,000, without a clear direction. Ted believes ETH needs to meet one of two conditions to trigger volatility: either re-establish above $3,000 or retest the $2,700–$2,800 zone. Analyst Kapoor Kshitiz observed that since November 21, large investors have accumulated 4.8 million ETH to defend an average cost basis of $2,796. If this support is broken, the next major on-chain support could be near $2,300. Jeff Mei from BTSE predicts that Ethereum’s future price depends closely on macro policies, fluctuating between $2,400 (if the Fed pauses rate hikes) and $3,600 (if “hidden QE” persists). CryptoBullet notes that ETH’s current price action is mirroring 2022’s pattern; if support is lost, the price could drop to the $2,200–$2,400 range, then rebound toward the 200-day moving average. Despite the short-term uncertainty, long-term bulls like Trend Research founder Yi Lihua see this phase as a bottom zone and plan to continue investing $1 billion on dips, betting on a major bull market in 2026.

While mainstream cryptocurrencies are consolidating, analyst Axel Bitblaze believes that if Bitcoin is in a mid-term correction rather than a cycle top, it will create a more favorable environment for altcoins, with some high-quality projects potentially reaching new all-time highs during this period.

2. Key Data (as of 12/26 13:00 HKT)

(Source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $89,036 (YTD -4.85%), daily spot trading volume $32.77 billion
• Ethereum: $2,973 (YTD -10.91%), daily spot trading volume $15.8 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 20 (Extreme Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 59.1%, ETH 12%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: 0G, ZBT, XRP, BTC, ETH
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.34% / 50.66%
• Sector performance: Most of the crypto market declined, NFT sector down over 7%, only AI and SocialFi sectors relatively resilient
• 24-hour liquidation data: Total 84,780 traders liquidated globally, total liquidation amount $181 million, with BTC liquidations at $73.65 million, ETH at $24.97 million, SOL at $10.3 million

3. ETF Flows (as of 12/24)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$175 million, 5-day net outflow
• Ethereum ETF: -$52.7 million
• Solana ETF: +$1.48 million
• XRP ETF: +$11.93 million

4. Today’s Preview

• $23.7 billion Bitcoin options will expire on Friday, with major positions near $85,000 and $100,000 strike prices
• Binance will delist BIO/FDUSD and four other spot trading pairs on December 26
• OKX will delist DEGENUSDT and CETUSUSDT perpetual contracts on December 26

Top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap with the biggest gains today: Pippin +8.4%, Bitcoin Cash +5.9%, MYX Finance +5.9%, World Liberty Financial +5.3%, Curve DAO +5%.

5. Hot News

• Spot silver breaks through $75
• Uniswap protocol fee switch proposal UNIfication passes overwhelmingly
• Whale adds 210,000 SOL early morning, with open interest loss of $58.96 million
• A whale adds $4 million short ETH and ZEC, HyperLiquid position gains over $17 million
• The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year is 84.5%
• Past year’s Launchpad performance: Binance Wallet leads with 12.69x ROI, ATH ROI 78.01x
• Ethereum will see Glamsterdam and Hegota forks in 2026, gas limit may increase to 200 million
• NFT market hits 2025 lows, annual market cap down 72%
• Ctrip’s overseas version Trip.com launches stablecoin payments supporting USDT and USDC
• Offshore RMB breaks above 7 for the first time in 2024, onshore RMB hits over a year high
• Bitcoin mining difficulty slightly up 0.04% to 148.26 T
• A new address withdraws 50,000 ZEC from Binance, worth about $22.17 million
• Most profitable crypto narratives in 2025: RWA and Layer1 lead, AI and Meme retreat significantly, GameFi and DePIN decline
• Suspected Multicoin OTC purchase of 60 million WLD from Worldcoin team