Author: Frank, PANews
Previously, PANews conducted in-depth research on prediction market strategies, one of the key findings being that: whether many arbitrage strategies can succeed may not be limited by the mathematical formulas of the strategies, but rather by the liquidity depth of the prediction markets themselves.
Recently, after Polymarket announced the launch of the US real estate prediction market, this phenomenon seems to have become even more apparent. Since its launch, the daily trading volume of this series of markets has only been a few hundred dollars, far from the expected lively activity. Its actual market popularity is much lower than the discussion on social media. This seems to be a humorous and abnormal situation, so we may need to conduct a comprehensive investigation into the liquidity of prediction markets to reveal some truths about liquidity in prediction markets.
PANews retrieved historical data of 295,000 markets on Polymarket to date, resulting in