#大户持仓变化 The countdown to the departure of Federal Reserve Chair has begun, and market focus is shifting—who will take over this position, and when will this personnel change be priced into the market.

Treasury Secretary Yellen has publicly stated she will not compete for the position, essentially declaring her departure. Currently, most analysts are eyeing Haskett, considering him the most competitive candidate.

Why him? The reasons are quite straightforward. First, his attitude toward cryptocurrencies is unequivocal—publicly supportive. In the current political ecosystem, this carries significant weight. Second, he has a clear stance on interest rate cuts, repeatedly stating that economic data support continued accommodative policy, with no ambiguity. Third, his economic views are highly aligned with Trump’s, and both are essentially on the same wavelength.

Logical deduction makes it very clear: once the market confirms Haskett will succeed, the Fed’s current hawkish-neutral expectation will instantly flip, replaced by an anticipation of policy easing ahead of schedule. Because of this, the probability of continued rate cuts in the second half of next year is no longer “potentially increasing,” but “virtually certain.”

But here’s a key point to clarify: rate cuts ≠ unlimited liquidity injection.

The large-scale liquidity releases that can truly shake the market will roughly come to an end around May next year. Subsequent rate cuts will more reflect policy intentions and market sentiment support, rather than a new round of significant liquidity influx.

From another perspective: the primary driver of market pricing in the first half of the year was liquidity expectations. In the second half, political cycles and policy directions will become the main valuation catalysts. The market always loves to speculate on expectations—when policies are finally implemented, reactions will be the most intense.