The magical 24 hours of war and encryption: gold experiences a big pump, BTC faces a big dump, and whales are "betting on the national fortune" with ETH.

Original author: Ding Dang

Reprint: Daisy, Mars Finance

This morning, a sudden "black swan" broke the brief calm of the financial market.

With the news of Israel launching airstrikes against Iran, the cryptocurrency market has suffered a significant setback. According to the OKX market data, the price of BTC has fallen below $103,000, with a 24-hour decline of 3.3%; ETH, which had recently been gaining momentum, has dropped below $2,450, with a decline of 9.2%; and the price of SOL, which had benefited from ETF news, has reached around $140, with a decline of 9.5%.

The derivatives market is in dire straits. According to data from Coinglass, the total liquidation across the network in the past 24 hours amounted to $1.159 billion, with the vast majority being long position liquidations, reaching $1.084 billion. In terms of cryptocurrency distribution, BTC saw liquidations of $458 million, while ETH experienced liquidations of $287 million.

The market switched from rebound to collapse in just one night.

The situation in Iran escalates: the trigger for the decline

The decline is not driven by technical factors, but rather by typical geopolitical events.

Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, and it is reported that the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, Salami, may have been killed in the attack. According to Jin Ten reports, several high-ranking Iranian officials have also become targets of Israeli attacks, including Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri. Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that missile and drone attacks against Israel and its civilians are expected in the near future. Currently, Israel has conducted 5 rounds of airstrikes against Iran.

Official Iranian media also conveyed a statement from the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, stating that Israel and the United States will "pay a very heavy price." In response, the United States and Israel will face "severe strikes." According to reports from Saudi media citing Israeli media, the Israeli city of Tel Aviv was attacked, including 10 nuclear facilities.

According to informed sources, Trump and his senior foreign policy advisors discussed how to reach an Iran nuclear deal without escalating the situation at Camp David last Sunday and Monday. The Iran issue was one of several foreign policy topics and meetings held during the evacuation of U.S. personnel. Government officials appear determined to reach an agreement through diplomatic means before any Israeli airstrikes.

U.S. Middle East envoy Welty was originally scheduled to travel to Oman for the sixth round of negotiations, but the airstrike cast a shadow over the prospects for talks. Trump stated on Truth Social: "We remain committed to resolving the Iranian nuclear issue through diplomatic means! My entire administration has been instructed to negotiate with Iran. They could become a great nation, but they must first completely abandon their hopes of acquiring nuclear weapons."

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy stated that the attack on Iran "is clearly aimed at undermining the Trump administration's negotiations with Iran" and "risks a regional war that could have catastrophic consequences for the United States."

This geopolitical storm has not only intensified the situation in the Middle East but also severely impacted the global risk asset market. The decline in U.S. stock index futures has widened, with Nasdaq futures dropping by 2%. The recent rebound in the cryptocurrency market has reverted to its original state, while safe-haven assets have risen in response. The spot price of gold has today surpassed $3400 per ounce, soaring by $55, with a daily increase of over 1.65%, and gold-related assets have collectively risen.

Data Observation: Is there a bottom-fishing opportunity for ETH?

Despite the turmoil in the cryptocurrency market, ETH has quietly become the focus of capital inflow against the trend. On-chain data reveals that institutions and whales are "increasing their positions to support the market."

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin, a whale that has accurately profited from ETH swings twice has spent a total of 174.1 million USD to purchase 65,325 ETH at an average price of 2,665 USD after today's decline. They are currently in a state of unrealized loss.

Lookonchain data shows that an address possibly associated with ConsenSys purchased 2,825 ETH through OTC 4 hours ago, amounting to 7.48 million USD; over the past two weeks, this address has accumulated more than 160,000 ETH (total value 421 million USD).

Whales are also choosing to leverage their operations. According to monitoring by The Data Nerd, a 0x address starting with 109 borrowed 5 million USDT from Aave to purchase 1,844 ETH (approximately 4.6 million USD). Subsequently, that address deposited all these ETH back into Aave, and now their wallet holds a total of 23,786 AETHWETH.

These actions do not seem to be a spontaneous "bet on a rebound." Rather, they are a clear signal of resonance between on-chain data and the real market: ETH is being embraced again by large funds.

Why ETH? Why now?

Behind the contrary accumulation of ETH, the market is not without clues.

Since the beginning of 2025, the Ethereum Foundation has initiated rare reforms to enhance operational efficiency through "self-optimization" and team restructuring. This move is interpreted by the market as a signal that the Ethereum ecosystem is moving towards a more mature and sustainable development.

After MicroStrategy incorporated BTC into its balance sheet, ETH has also begun to become a new favorite for corporate financial reserves. The U.S. publicly traded company SharpLink Gaming recently announced that it would include ETH in its asset allocation. Additionally, according to Bloomberg, at least three Nasdaq-listed companies are evaluating ETH as a long-term investment asset, trying to replicate MicroStrategy's "growth flywheel" model. This trend indicates that traditional finance's recognition of ETH is deepening.

According to Deribit data, the trading volume of ETH call options has continued to rise since June, indicating a warming expectation in the market for a short-term rebound of ETH.

Image source: @Amberdataio

Who is rallying the "ETH army"?

On June 11, a wallet suspected to be associated with Cumberland withdrew 10,200 ETH (approximately 28.54 million USD) from Binance. The address had deposited 30 million USDC to Binance 20 hours prior for building a position, when the ETH price was in the 2790 USD range.

The largest voice of ETH bulls in this round (especially in the Chinese-speaking community) belongs to Trend Research. This organization has been continuously bullish on ETH since it was at 1400 USD and currently holds 142,000 ETH. Founder Jack Yi publicly holds 100,000 ETH call options.

What's even more dramatic is that ETH has become a "financial target" for hackers: in April 2023, they stole multiple tokens worth $23 million at the time from the Bitrue exchange, and then exchanged those assets for ETH, but sold 4, 207 ETH for $3,885 for 16.345 million DAI.

On June 12, hackers transferred 5111.5 ETH and 16.345 million DAI to a new address, then purchased 5,917.8 ETH with the 16.345 million DAI at a price of $2,762. They then washed all 11,029.3 ETH (30.46 million dollars) through Tornado.

In other words, the $23 million worth of assets stolen from Bitrue was eventually exchanged for 12,079 ETH and transferred via Tornado, at which point the value had increased to $32.36 million, a growth of $9.36 million from the initial value.

Market Focus: Where will BTC stop falling? Can ETH break through?

Carolyn Mollen, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a crypto derivatives liquidity provider, analyzed: "Cryptocurrencies reacted negatively to the news of Israel's attack on Iran, in line with the performance of major risk assets. We expect BTC to find technical support around $101,000, but in the near term, geopolitical news will remain the dominant factor in price action. ”

The situation in the Middle East remains highly uncertain, making it difficult for risky assets to show signs of recovery in the short term. However, the counter-trend accumulation of ETH undoubtedly sends a signal: the market is still looking for certain assets, and ETH may be emerging from the "altcoin resonance."

In contrast, the situation for altcoins is not optimistic. Rui, an investment manager at HashKey Capital, stated in a post that the liquidity of altcoins has reached a freezing point. There are no buy or sell orders in the order book, and even positive news is not attracting buyers; new coins drop within thirty seconds of being listed, and everything has turned into a slow decline.

However, there is also some good news. Recently, the Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Paul Atkins, stated that the SEC is formulating an "innovation exemption" policy for DeFi platforms. Atkins mentioned that he has asked staff to study amending rules to provide regulatory exemptions for on-chain financial systems, allowing entities under SEC jurisdiction to quickly launch on-chain products. If this policy is implemented, it would mean a relaxation of regulations on DeFi and would directly benefit the expansion of the Ethereum ecosystem, enhancing the intrinsic value of ETH.

However, this raises a key question: Does the rise of ETH signal the return of the "altcoin season"? The answer may not be optimistic. Currently, ETH's ability to attract funds relies more on the substantial support from institutions. So, if even ETH needs institutional backing, what will be left for other altcoins?