Bitcoin: How Low Can Prices Go in the Next 90 Days, According to a Leading Economist

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In a recent analysis, Peterson examined the past performance of Bitcoin during periods when the High Yield Rate exceeded 8%—a threshold that is currently being tested. Drawing from 38 historical events since 2010, he found that Bitcoin achieved an average return of 71% in the following three months, with an average increase of 31%. The worst loss during those periods? Only 16%. Emerging market behavior in 2024 Peterson's data shows that Bitcoin could trade in the range of 75,000 to 138,000 dollars over the next 90 days, based on its previous performance in similar environments. He also emphasized an important change in market behavior: the correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index has reached a record level. Although not a direct cause, Peterson noted that this relationship reflects how both assets are currently being driven by tight liquidity, high real interest rates, and risk-averse sentiment. "These are macro stress signals and Bitcoin is reacting like any other major asset under pressure," he noted. A breakthrough is expected as conditions change. Peterson predicts that the strong correlation between Bitcoin and macro indicators will break down by the end of this year, as interest rates stabilize and liquidity improves. When that change occurs, he believes that Bitcoin could decouple and continue a stronger upward trend. With historical models, tightening conditions, and investor behavior aligned, Peterson's analysis indicates the potential for BTC to break out in the short term, even in the face of ongoing economic difficulties.

BTC0.69%
XEM-2.86%
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