Polymarket 新上线 5 分钟加密货币涨跌交易市场，由 Chainlink 提供支持

'Bitcoin Going to Zero' Google Searches Rise With Crypto Sentiment in the Dumps

Search interest in Bitcoin's failure is peaking, correlating with a drastic drop in crypto sentiment. Bitcoin is down 47% from its October high, facing predictions of further declines, though experts don't foresee it dropping to zero.

特朗普表示不再在乎诺贝尔奖，美国2月底前打击伊朗概率升至25%

美军已在中东地区部署多种空海力量，特朗普则强调与伊朗进行良好对话，并期望达成协议。预测市场显示，打击伊朗的可能性在逐渐上升。

美联储卡什卡利：沃什完全有资格担任美联储主席

明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利称沃什有资格担任美联储主席，期待后续讨论。虽然白宫正式提名沃什，但其获提名概率 已降至95%，而朱迪·谢尔顿的提名概率上升至4-5%。专家认为即使沃什未能提名，谢尔顿也难以成为潜在选项。

Kalshi Rate Forecasts Match Fed Survey Accuracy, Analysis Finds

_Prediction market data from Kalshi shows stronger accuracy than traditional futures and survey forecasts on key macro trends._ Prediction markets are gaining ground in macro forecasting. Federal Reserve economists report that Kalshi’s rate contracts have closely mirrored U.S. monetary

观点：Polymarket近期诉讼结果将决定美国预测市场监管归属

Polymarket 最近对马萨诸塞州提起诉讼，主张预测市场的监管权归美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC），而非州政府。这场诉讼可能影响美国预测市场的监管框架，决定其能否规避州级赌博法规，或需遵循各州规则。