Polymarket 市场押注 USD.ai 上线次日 FDV 超 1 亿美元概率达 92%

Gate News 消息,4 月 3 日,Polymarket 预测市场数据显示,USD.ai 上线次日 FDV 超 1 亿美元的概率为 92%,超 1.5 亿美元的概率为 85%,超 2 亿美元的概率为 50%。目前该预测市场的成交额已超 250 万美元。

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to Disclaimer.

Gerelateerde artikelen

Trump Softens Prediction Market Criticism, Cites Support from 'Smart People'

President Donald Trump reversed his recent criticism of prediction markets on Saturday, telling reporters that "very smart" people he knows support the industry, despite his Thursday comments characterizing the sector as contributing to turning "the whole world" into "somewhat of a casino." The

CryptoFrontier3u geleden

預測市場理論奠基者 Robin Hanson:內線消息是預測市場的價值之一

Polymarket 與 Kalshi 在監管壓力下推行內線交易限制,然而預測市場理論奠基人 Robin Hanson 認為內部消息是市場價值與快速反映真相的核心機制。他用撲克牌桌比喻警示資訊不對等風險,並主張若完全排除內部人士,市場可能只是包裝成金融商品的猜謎。文章指他視預測市場為民主而非菁英壟斷,並質疑若禁止公務員交易,是否也該限制記者爆料。此觀點出自 ABMedia 的鏈新聞報導。

ChainNewsAbmedia11u geleden

CLARITY 法案進入 28 天關鍵視窗!Polymarket:通過機率降至 38%

根據 Polymarket 預測市場於 4 月 27 日數據,《數位資產市場清晰度法案》(CLARITY Act)在 2026 年完成立法的機率已從先前高峰的 70% 下降至 38-50%。自 4 月 27 日起算,距離 2026 年 5 月 25 日美國亡兵紀念日假期僅剩 28 天。

MarketWhisper14u geleden

SSRN 研究論文:Polymarket 定價準確性源自 3.14% 知情交易者

根據 4 月 20 日發布於 SSRN 的學術工作論文,倫敦商學院及耶魯大學研究團隊分析 Polymarket 完整交易記錄後得出結論:該平台定價準確性主要源自 3.14% 知情交易者,而非全體帳戶集體智慧。研究涵蓋 98,906 個事件、210,322 個市場,涉及 172 萬個帳戶,總交易額達 137.6 億美元。

MarketWhisper16u geleden

研究揭:Polymarket 3% 玩家賺走 30% 利潤,逾七成玩家吸收全部虧損

新研究分析 Polymarket 2023–2025 的交易紀錄,顯示僅 3.14% 的熟練贏家掌握超過 30% 的獲利,群眾貢獻並不足以解釋整體準確度;同時追蹤到 1,950 名高度可疑的內線交易帳戶,雖未主導預測,但放大了價格波動。個案顯示在美國公佈委內瑞拉動向前就大額押注並獲利。研究質疑群眾智慧,並強調日益嚴格監管的必要。

ChainNewsAbmedia17u geleden

Polymarket Analysis: Crypto Events Account for 40% of Top 10 Most Volatile Markets

Gate News message, April 27 — Polysights, a third-party prediction market data platform, analyzed over 20,000 Polymarket markets from the past six months and released a volatility ranking. The analysis revealed that cryptocurrency-related markets account for four of the top ten most volatile markets

GateNews18u geleden
Opmerking
0/400
Geen opmerkingen