根據消息，預測市場 Polymarket 近期發生因 UFC 賽事現場播報錯誤，引發盤口價格極端波動的事件。有交易員利用資訊傳遞的時間差，以低價買入遭市場錯估的合約，在短短不到十分鐘實現百倍獲利。
誤判勝負引發盤口波動
在 UFC 格鬥之夜 Marcin Tybura 對戰 Tyrell Fortune 的賽事尾聲，主辦方先是宣布 Tybura 為獲勝者，此時 Tybura 勝出的合約價格推升至 0.99 美元，而押注 Fortune 勝出的合約價格則因市場認為其已落敗，迅速下跌至 0.01 美元的最低報價。但就在幾分鐘後，主辦方把 Fortuna 重新帶回八角籠致歉，並將正式比賽結果更正為 Fortune 以一致判定（Unanimous decision）獲勝。
交易員利用資訊時間差買入低價籌碼
在現場播報錯誤到主辦單位發覺並更正的數分鐘內，現場實際狀況與平台合約報價出現了資訊時間差。一名交易員抓住此機會，在市場價格尚未作出反應前，以每股 0.01 美元投入 676 美元的成本買入，其部位價值在比賽更正時上升至 67,608 美元 ，瞬間實現百倍獲利。
投資人建議預測市場引入熔斷機制控管風險
針對此事件的交易歷程，市場參與者開始檢視現有交易機制的風險控管。部分社群意見指出，預測市場在處理事件結果判定（Market Resolution）時，應考慮建立類似傳統金融市場的「熔斷機制」（Circuit Breakers），以避免類似烏龍事件影響判決，而目前的去中心化預測市場缺乏應對突發人為疏失的緩衝機制，投資人如果僅看機率下注也可能蒙受巨大損失。
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