Gate News 消息，3 月 11 日，预测市场 Polymarket 上，一个在地缘政治市场拥有 83% 胜率的账户投入 6.28 万美元，押注「俄乌不会在 6 月 30 日前停火」。该笔押注的开仓均价为 83.6¢，目前该选项的概率为 81.5%。
针对近期爆发的美以与伊朗冲突，俄罗斯强烈谴责针对伊朗的军事打击，认为这极大地加剧了地区动荡；乌克兰则借此强调「俄罗斯-伊朗」军事轴心的连带威胁，呼吁西方在应对中东局势的同时，绝对不能转移焦点或削减对乌克兰的军事与防空援助。
在俄乌战场方面，双方在东部前线持续拉锯，并未出现实质性的战线收缩。对于停火谈判，俄罗斯坚持任何停火协议都必须以乌克兰承认当前的「领土现实」为前提；乌克兰则坚决拒绝冻结冲突，强调必须以俄军全面撤出为基础实现公正和平。
根据其过往交易画像判断，该交易者并非押注事件是否实际发生，存在开仓后在某一时间点止盈、止损的行为。账户地址：0x21f7e463afb18b15df1cc94cd4a3bd27e7af8f97。
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