歐洲央行（ECB）研究人員發布工作文件，警告穩定幣的廣泛採用將對歐元區銀行體系與 ECB 的貨幣主權構成重大風險，尤其是在美元等外幣計價工具佔主導地位的情況下，可能將歐洲以外的貨幣條件引入歐元區，並增加利率政策傳導的不確定性。
工作文件的核心風險識別框架
這份由多位 ECB 研究人員聯合撰寫的工作文件，識別出穩定幣廣泛普及對歐元區貨幣體系的三個主要傳導渠道。
首先，快速擴張可能引發資金從零售銀行存款大規模重新配置至數位資產，削弱銀行體系的資金來源穩定性；其次，銀行中介能力受損後，ECB 的政策利率傳導至實際貸款量的效率將面臨更高的不確定性；第三，如果穩定幣市場被非歐元計價工具所主導，影響將顯著放大——外幣計價穩定幣的需求波動，可能將境外貨幣與金融衝擊直接傳遞至歐元區。
文件指出：「對與外幣掛鉤的穩定幣的需求波動可能將外國貨幣和金融衝擊直接傳遞到歐元區，有效地引入可能與國內政策立場正交的外部流動性狀況。」
政策背景：川普加密政策觸發歐洲監管警覺
此次 ECB 工作文件的發布，時值川普政府積極推動加密貨幣主流化，美元支持穩定幣在歐洲市場的潛在擴張引發廣泛關注。ECB 執行委員會成員 Piero Cipollone 曾在 1 月表示，此類工具可能「威脅金融穩定」；德國聯邦銀行行長 Joachim Nagel 則相對正面地主張，與歐元掛鉤的穩定幣應用於支付場景具有積極意義。
目前，花旗集團（Citi）、荷蘭國際集團（ING）、義大利聯合信貸銀行（UniCredit）和德卡銀行（DekaBank）等歐洲主要銀行，正在聯合開發受監管的歐元穩定幣，被視為對抗美元計價穩定幣擴張的歐洲主動回應。
ECB 工作文件識別的核心風險要點
存款重新配置：快速擴張可能導致零售銀行存款大量轉向數位資產，削弱銀行體系的資金基礎
中介能力受損：銀行資金來源不穩定，降低信貸投放能力，影響實體經濟融資
政策傳導效力下降：ECB 利率調整至貸款市場的傳導路徑受阻，貨幣政策效力削弱
外幣計價穩定幣放大效應：美元等外幣穩定幣主導市場時，外部貨幣衝擊可不經 ECB 控制直接進入歐元區
批發融資風險上升：銀行可能增加對外幣批發融資的依賴，進一步削弱對 ECB 政策立場的敏感度
常見問題
歐洲央行所警告的「貨幣主權」風險具體指的是什麼？
歐洲央行的貨幣主權是指 ECB 能夠通過政策利率調整有效影響歐元區借貸成本和信貸流量的能力。當大量資金從受 ECB 監管的銀行存款轉移至外幣計價的穩定幣時，ECB 的政策工具對這部分資金的影響力大幅降低，使得利率決策的市場傳導效果被削弱。
為何美元穩定幣比歐元穩定幣對歐洲貨幣政策更具威脅性？
歐元穩定幣的資產儲備和運作仍在 ECB 監管框架下，貨幣政策傳導渠道相對完整。而美元計價穩定幣的流動性和價值由美聯儲的政策立場決定，一旦在歐元區廣泛流通，等同於將美國的貨幣條件直接引入歐洲市場，繞過 ECB 的政策工具，形成外部貨幣衝擊的直接傳導渠道。
歐洲銀行聯合開發歐元穩定幣的計劃，能否有效應對 ECB 的風險擔憂？
花旗集團、ING、UniCredit 和 DekaBank 等機構聯合推進的歐元穩定幣計劃，與 ECB 的立場部分吻合——德國聯邦銀行行長 Nagel 對歐元穩定幣的支付應用持正面態度。若歐元穩定幣能夠在規模和可用性上與美元穩定幣競爭，有助於減少用戶轉向外幣工具的動機，但具體的監管框架和上線時程仍有待明確。
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