美伊軍事衝突持續升溫之際，比特幣並未重蹈此前地緣政治衝擊大跌的模式，周末期間在 67,000 美元附近保持相對穩定，顯示市場已將主要地緣政治風險提前納入定價。加密交易員 BitBull 從三日走勢圖解讀，「阻力位已轉為支撐」，預期比特幣有望反彈至 73,000 至 74,000 美元。
比特幣展現韌性的背後：地緣政治風險已被「消化」
（來源：Trading View）
周末，川普總統在接受《每日郵報》獨家採訪時確認，三名美軍服役人員在對伊朗行動中陣亡，同時暗示衝突持續時間約為四週。伊朗發出封鎖霍爾木茲海峽的威脅，令美股期貨在周末跌幅達 0.65%。
然而，比特幣的反應截然不同。加密貨幣市場出現短暫波動後迅速平靜，BTC/USD 維持在局部區間內運行，未出現突破性下跌。部分市場參與者認為，伊朗衝突的最壞預期已在此前的定價中充分反映，因此新消息並未引發追加拋售。
比特幣今日上漲的三大支撐論點
地緣政治風險已提前消化：市場認為伊朗衝突的主要衝擊已在此前的定價中反映，周末新消息未產生額外恐慌
技術面支撐轉換信號：BitBull 指出，此前阻力區已轉化為有效支撐，三日圖表結構看漲，目標指向 73,000 至 74,000 美元
21 日均線突破預期：Michaël van de Poppe 指出，21 日簡單移動平均線（約 67,627 美元）若能突破，將確認中期反彈行情，預期在 3 至 4 月出現
油價與通膨衝擊：比特幣最大下行風險在哪裡
（來源：美國勞工統計局）
儘管短期前景相對樂觀，一個關鍵的宏觀風險正在醞釀。若伊朗真正封鎖霍爾木茲海峽，全球油價可能劇烈上漲。交易資源《科比西通訊》引用摩根大通研究報告稱，油價大幅上漲可能導致美國 CPI 躍升至 5%。
美國上一次 CPI 達到 5% 是在 2023 年 3 月，彼時聯準會正處於積極升息週期，激進緊縮政策對風險資產造成了重大壓制。近期美國通膨數據已接連超出預期，尤其是周五公布的 PPI 數據顯著高於市場預估，若油價進一步攀升，聯準會的鴿派預期將遭修正，比特幣將再度面臨宏觀壓力。
此外，芝加哥商品交易所（CME）比特幣期貨在 65,880 美元處存在一個向下的未補缺口，若明日美股開盤承壓，這一缺口可能成為比特幣短期下行的磁吸目標。
常見問題
比特幣今日為何上漲？
市場普遍認為，伊朗衝突升溫的主要地緣政治風險已在此前的定價中被消化，周末新消息未引發追加拋售。多位分析師看到技術面支撐轉換信號，21 日均線突破預期為 3 至 4 月的看漲情景提供了基礎。
比特幣的短期技術目標是多少？
BitBull 預期比特幣有望從當前支撐位反彈至 73,000 至 74,000 美元。而 21 日簡單移動平均線（約 67,627 美元）是關鍵技術分水嶺，有效突破將確認中期多頭行情的展開。
伊朗戰事對比特幣的最大風險是什麼？
最大風險來自油價上漲引發的通膨預期升溫。若霍爾木茲海峽被封鎖導致油價急升，美國 CPI 可能攀至 5%，迫使聯準會維持鷹派立場，壓制比特幣等風險資產需求。此外，CME 期貨在 65,880 美元的未補缺口亦是短期值得警惕的下行磁吸目標。
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