2月25日消息，比特币价格自历史高点下跌约50%，长期持有者74%的利润正在快速缩水。CryptoQuant分析师 Darkfost 指出，随着比特币价格接近成本价，长期持有者的平均利润持续下降，这一趋势通常预示熊市投降阶段的到来。
Glassnode 报告显示，比特币已实现盈亏比的90日移动平均值跌破1，市场进入超额亏损实现阶段。历史数据显示，此类熊市至少持续六个月，之后市场流动性才会恢复。分析师 James Check 指出，比特币连续近五个月下跌，一周已实现波动率飙升至150%以上，周线相对强弱指数（RSI）也处于历史超卖水平，高价位区间的比特币大量流向新持有者。
此外，分析师 James Van Straten 报告称，比特币亏损供应量已达1000万枚，为历史第四高纪录。预计下周流通供应量将达到2000万枚，其中约50%处于亏损状态。Van Straten 指出，这种程度的资本损失往往是熊市底部形成的重要信号。
技术分析显示，比特币在亚洲早盘交易中出现小幅反弹，但整体看跌情绪仍占主导，价格走势形成更低峰值，关键支撑位依然有效。市场观察人士认为，历史模式表明，在长期持有者亏损压力集中释放之后，比特币可能迎来下一轮反弹机会。
投资者需关注长期持有者成本价、亏损供应量及关键支撑位的变化，这将成为判断比特币熊市持续周期及潜在底部的重要指标。
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