BlockBeats 消息,2 月 24 日,Wintermute 在社交媒体上发布市场报告表示,自两周前的连环清算以来,BTC 已多次上攻 7 万美元未果。没有出现像样的反弹尝试,这一事实本身比震荡区间更具说服力。价格走势震荡,流动性稀薄,区间收窄且缺乏方向信念。ETH 本周跌破 1900 美元,这个水平在心理上比技术面上更重要,ETH 真正需要关注的水平在 1600 美元附近。
尽管价格企稳,但机构需求似乎并未回归,这一点在之前 8.5 万至 9.5 万美元的价格区间中我们曾明确看到过。衍生品市场反映出方向性观点和交易意愿的缺失,基差处于多月低点,看跌期权 skew 高企且持续走高,未平仓合约自 10 月以来持续下降。
交易台方面,资金流向偏重于卖出活动。然而,本周中期出现了一个有趣信号,高净值投资者短暂表现出对部分山寨币的买入兴趣,在一个整体防御性的环境中,这是一个微小但值得注意的信心火花,不过很快便消散了。进入下半周,市场再度陷入震荡,任何入场意愿均告消退,表明市场尚未准备好奖励早期布局。边际活动仍是出于保护而非信念。
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