BlockBeats 消息,2 月 16 日,知名分析师 Willy Woo 表示,比特币相对于黄金已延续 12 年的估值趋势最近被打破,BTC 的相对估值本应更高,但在现实中没能达成,主要是对量子计算的风险觉醒导致市场开始提前定价潜在问题。
比特币在未来很可能通过量子抗性签名进行修补,但这无法解决约 400 万枚「丢失」BTC(早期丢失的私钥可能被量子计算机破解)重新进入流通的问题。Willy Woo 预计有 75% 的概率这些丢失比特币不会通过协议硬分叉被冻结,因此市场需要提前计入 400 万枚抛压。
自 2020 年 MicroStrategy 开始囤积 BTC 以来的企业及 ETF 总积累量仅 280 万枚 BTC,这 400 万枚丢失代币相当于 8 年企业积累量,会产生严重供应稀释。在「Q-Day」之前(量子计算威胁实现日,预计 5-15 年后)BTC 价格将持续受此阴云影响。
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