Odaily星球日报讯 斯坦福商学院教授、a16z&Meta 顾问 Andy Hall 在 X 平台发文表示，其团队建立了一个关注政治预测市场、流动性和结算规则的新数据集。研究发现，预测市场中绝大多数政治合约缺乏活跃度，仅 1.3%的合约具备足够流动性。Kalshi 与 Polymarket 很少列出规则相同的相同合约，导致流动性进一步碎片化。
Andy Hall 提出四项改进建议：第一，在核心问题上列出合约，与独立机构合作定义社会关注的市场；第二，向做市商支付费用以在政治市场注入初始流动性；第三，引入 AI 代理在人类不参与的领域进行交易，生成社会需要的价格参考；第四，跨平台建立统一的定义和结算规则。Andy Hall 认为，这些举措将吸引对冲政治风险的交易者，使预测市场成为社会所需的真相机器。
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