Fundstrat首席投资官、BitMine Immersion（BMNR）董事长Tom Lee在香港Consensus Hong Kong 2026大会上表示，投资者不应再执着于精准预测市场底部，而应转向在回调中寻找具备风险回报优势的入场机会。“你该思考的是机会，而不是恐慌抛售，”他强调。
近期，加密市场再度承压。比特币自2025年10月创下历史高点以来已回调约50%，为2022年以来最剧烈的调整之一。周三，比特币跌破67,000美元，过去24小时下跌约2.8%；以太坊同步走弱，回落至1,950美元附近，单日跌幅约3%。
Lee将这轮下行与贵金属价格的大幅波动联系在一起。他指出，1月下旬黄金市值单日出现数万亿美元级别的震荡，引发连锁保证金压力，风险资产随之被抛售。由于2025年比特币表现明显落后于黄金，他认为贵金属可能已接近阶段高点，而数字资产在2026年前具备更好的相对表现空间。
在谈及以太坊时，Lee回顾历史走势指出，自2018年以来，以太坊多次出现50%级别的深度回撤，但随后往往伴随强劲反弹。他还引用技术分析师Tom DeMark的判断称，以太坊可能短暂跌破1,800美元，从而构筑“完美底部”，为后续的中期复苏奠定基础。
Lee总结称，市场永远难以给出一个人人都认可的最低点，但分批布局、控制节奏、关注长期逻辑，往往比执着于精准时点更具现实意义。对于愿意承担波动的投资者而言，当前阶段更像是重新评估风险与潜在回报的关键窗口。
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