作者：VanEck
編譯：Felix, PANews
進入 2026 年，更清晰的財政和貨幣訊號支撐著更積極的風險偏好，人工智慧、私募信貸、黃金、印度和加密貨幣等領域都將迎來更具吸引力的投資機會。
要點：
- 2025 年末 AI 相關股票大幅回調，重置了估值，使得 AI 及相關主題的投資機會更具吸引力。
- 黃金繼續作為全球貨幣資產重新崛起，回檔提供了更好的入場時機。
- 在經歷艱難的 2025 年後，商業發展公司（BDCs）目前提供了更具吸引力的收益率和估值。
- 印度仍是一個高成長潛力的投資市場，而加密貨幣長期看漲，但短期走勢訊號複雜。
隨著邁入 2026 年，市場處於罕見的環境：明朗。儘管選擇性仍然至關重要，但圍繞財政政策、貨幣政策方向以及主要投資主題的這種明確性支持著更積極的風險偏好策略。
在去年末部分 AI 相關股票出現劇烈回調後，如今的 AI 交易比 10 月「令人窒息」的高點更具吸引力。值得注意的是，這次回檔發生的同時，對計算、代幣和生產力提升的潛在需求仍然強勁。
與之相關的主題，例如與 AI 驅動電力需求掛鉤的核能，也出現了顯著的價格調整。這種調整改善了具有中長期視野的投資者的風險回報狀況。
未來財政與貨幣政策意外事件減少
對市場而言，最重要的進展之一是美國財政狀況的逐步改善。儘管赤字仍處於高位，但其佔 GDP 的比例已從疫情期間的歷史高點下降。這種財政穩定性有助於錨定長期利率，並降低尾部風險。
在利率方面，美國財政部長 Scott Bessent 將當前利率水準描述為「正常」，這頗具深意。市場不應指望 2026 年會出現激進或破壞穩定的短期降息。相反，前景指向政策穩定、適度調整和更少的衝擊。這也是市場前景更明朗的原因之一。
核能股票在第四季出現回檔：
來源：彭博。數據截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日
商業發展公司重新受到關注
商業發展公司（BDCs）在 2025 年經歷了艱難的一年，但此次調整帶來了機會。由於收益率仍具吸引力，且信貸擔憂已在很大程度上被市場消化，BDCs 目前比一年前更具吸引力。
背後的管理公司（如 Ares）也是如此，這些公司目前的估值與其長期獲利能力和過往業績相比，變得更加合理。
黃金作為全球貨幣資產
在各國央行需求和全球經濟日益擺脫美元主導地位的推動下，黃金正繼續重新崛起為領先的全球貨幣。儘管從技術角度來看，黃金價格似乎已經過高，但 VanEck 認為這次回檔是增持的良機。其結構性優勢依然存在。
黃金價格高於支撐位，但需求依然強勁：
來源：彭博。數據截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日
印度和加密貨幣的投資機會
除美國市場外，印度仍是一個極具潛力的長期投資市場，這得益於其結構性改革和持續的成長動力。
在加密貨幣領域，比特幣傳統的四年週期在 2025 年被打破，使得短期訊號變得複雜。這種背離支持了未來 3 至 6 個月更為謹慎的短期展望。然而，VanEck 內部並非普遍持有這種觀點，Matthew Sigel 和 David Schassler 對近期週期持較為正面的態度。
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