Deutsche Bank looks ahead to European Central Bank decision: more rate cuts to come after this week's cut

Jinshi data news on January 30th, Deutsche Bank looked ahead to this week’s European Central Bank Interest Rate decision, stating that the European Central Bank will continue to cut interest rates on January 30th, lowering the deposit interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, while it is expected that the main content of the policy stance will remain unchanged compared to December. Deutsche Bank’s baseline forecast for the European Central Bank is that the ECB will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the four monetary policy meetings in the first half of 2025, i.e., once in January, March, April, and June, and the Interest Rate policy will reach 2% before the middle of the year. The European Central Bank will continue to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, but at a slower pace. Both the third quarter (September meeting) and the fourth quarter (December meeting) will see a 25 basis point cut, reaching a terminal Interest Rate of 1.5% by the end of the year, slightly below the neutral level. The assumption for the expected interest rate cut path of the European Central Bank is that the economic rise is below the trend level, inflation is slightly below the target, and facing downside risks.