Tianfeng Fixed Income: The annual issuance of exchange bonds may reach 1 trillion yuan, and the net financing of government bonds in 2025 is expected to exceed 11.79 trillion yuan.

Jinshi Data News on November 1st, Tianfeng Fixed Income Analysis stated that the market's follow-up fiscal increment mainly involves four dimensions: debt replacement, adjustment of the current year's budget (filling the gap), capital replenishment, and next year's budget arrangement. For debt replacement, if we estimate 6 trillion yuan in three years, it is expected to be 2 trillion yuan per year. By the end of this year, perhaps 1 trillion yuan of replacement bonds issuance will be launched. For the incremental fiscal scale in 2025, we estimate it based on the general budget deficit rate of 3.5%, the additional special bonds of 4.9 trillion yuan, and the issuance of special ultra-long-term national bonds of 1 trillion yuan. The estimated size of replacement bonds issuance in 2025 is 2 trillion yuan. Corresponding to government bond supply, it is expected that net financing of government bonds in November and December will be 2.8189 trillion yuan, an increase of 775.3 billion yuan compared to 2023. It is expected that the net financing of government bonds for the whole year of 2025 will be 11.7936 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.2682 trillion yuan compared to the estimated number in 2024 and an increase of 2.0082 trillion yuan compared to 2023.