CITIC Securities: Limited Upward Risk of Short-term U.S. Treasury Intrerest Rate

Jin Shi Data News on October 17th: CITIC Securities research report pointed out that the US year-end CPI is expected to rise by 2.8% YoY, and the core CPI is 3.2% YoY. The food inflation in the US may face temporary pressure, and the upward risk of energy inflation is limited. The MoM growth rate of core commodity inflation in the US may fluctuate near zero, and there may be some stickiness in core service inflation. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November is high, and there is still a 50bps rate cut space this year. In the short term, the upward risk of short-term US bond yields is limited, and the long-term US bond yields may fluctuate widely.