Zheshang Securities: It is expected that the short-term 10-year Treasury bond yield will generally fluctuate.

On October 12, Jinshi Data reported that Zheshang Securities research report pointed out that fiscal policy mainly makes up for the budget gap, and has not significantly boosted total demand. The deviation between the broad fiscal revenue and expenditure and the budget implies the expectation of the future fiscal increment policy scale. The significant increase in local debt limits is based on both short-term and medium-term considerations. The incremental finance has multiple uses, but the main body is the three guarantees at the grassroots level, which is generally in line with expectations. For the stock market, if subsequent fiscal stimulus lands, funds strengthen the three guarantees, hedge risks, and enhance risk appetite, which will help boost market confidence. For the bond market, it is expected that the overall trend of the 10-year national bond yield will be volatile in the short term. In the medium and long term, only when a large-scale fiscal stimulus policy that boosts total demand is introduced, will the bond market logic reverse.