Ethereum drops 31%, institutions build positions against the market! Analyst: Consumer confidence is the overlooked key

Swyftx Chief Analyst Pav Hundal said on Thursday that the price of Ethereum (ETH) has absorbed most of the short-term macro risks and upcoming industry catalysts, and is expected to remain sideways in the coming weeks. He pointed out that Ethereum faces dual pressures: the October liquidation event caused about $19 billion in market losses, coupled with consumer confidence dropping to its lowest level since 2022.

Market-Already-Absorbed Risks and Underestimated Confidence Factors

Hundal told Cointelegraph that current geopolitical tensions—including the escalating Iran crisis—and the legislative progress of the U.S. CLARITY Act have essentially been priced in by the market and reflected in current prices.

He emphasized that consumer confidence is the most underestimated key factor in the market right now: “Traders are focused on the next liquidity source but overlook market sentiment. For me, consumer confidence is the truly neglected important factor.”

From a data perspective, Ethereum has fallen from a peak of about $4,687 in October to around $2,021 at the time of writing—a 31.65% decline over 30 days. In the context of Bitcoin reaching a historic high of $126,100 during the same period, ETH’s performance gap is particularly notable. As of Friday, the crypto fear and greed index reported “Extreme Fear” at 13, indicating investor sentiment is highly cautious.

Institutional Accumulation Against the Market vs. Retail Caution

Despite the bearish market sentiment, the largest institutional ETH holder, BitMine Immersion Technologies, has continued to accumulate recently. According to the latest disclosures, the company purchased 45,759 ETH, bringing its total holdings to 4,371,497 ETH, about 3.62% of the circulating supply of 120.7 million ETH. The divergence between institutional buying and retail caution reflects a structural split in the current market.

Recent Key Market Data for Ethereum

• Current Trading Price: About $2,021 (at the time of writing)
• 30-Day Decline: -31.65% (according to CoinMarketCap)
• Drop from Peak: Down about 56.8% from October’s high of around $4,687
• ETH/BTC Ratio: Up 3.58% over the past 7 days (according to TradingView)
• Fear & Greed Index: 13 (“Extreme Fear”)
• BitMine Holdings: 4,371,497 ETH, approximately 3.62% of circulating supply

In the medium to long term, Hundal notes that Ethereum’s trend could even test the “most experienced investors,” but he is also closely watching for signs that ETH might start outperforming Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio increased by 3.58% over the past 7 days, which is a noteworthy technical improvement signal to monitor.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does it mean when analysts say “Ethereum has absorbed the risks,” and why might it still remain sideways?

“Absorbed risks” means the market has already priced in known negative factors (such as geopolitical tensions, legislative developments, etc.) into current prices. Without new catalysts, the lack of directional momentum often leads to sideways consolidation. Hundal believes that low consumer confidence is the core constraint on further upside, and this factor is unlikely to improve quickly.

Does the large accumulation by BitMine Immersion Technologies indicate Ethereum is about to rebound?

Institutional accumulation is generally seen as a long-term bullish signal but does not directly predict short-term price rebounds. Institutional investors tend to have longer holding periods, and their buying behavior reflects medium- to long-term judgment. The overall market remains dominated by extreme fear, and short-term trends are still uncertain. A single institutional buy does not confirm a bullish reversal.

Does the 3.58% rise in the ETH/BTC ratio indicate Ethereum is improving?

A 7-day increase of 3.58% in the ETH/BTC ratio shows Ethereum is relative to Bitcoin improving, but longer-term confirmation is needed to determine if this signals a genuine trend reversal. Hundal is closely monitoring this indicator; if ETH/BTC continues to strengthen, it could be an early sign that Ethereum is starting to outperform Bitcoin.