"Dr. Doom" Rarely Optimistic: U.S. Stocks Won't Crash, Technology Will Allow America to "Defy Fate"

BlockBeats news, on November 27, the famous economist Nouriel Roubini has been carrying the nickname 'Dr. Doom' for nearly two decades. This economist believes that after a brief period of cooling growth, a strong rebound driven by technology and capital expenditure will come, allowing the U.S. to maintain its world-leading position. He pointed out that, first, market discipline, rational advisers, and the independence of the Fed provided protection for the worst policies after 'liberation day.' Due to a rapid and significant adjustment in the market afterwards, Trump had to concede and negotiate a more reasonable trade agreement. The current popular view—that the U.S. stock market is in a massive bubble that is destined to burst—is incorrect in the medium term. Roubini pointed out that faster GDP growth may lead to an increase in real bond yields, but a huge positive supply shock driven by technology could bring inflation down to near-zero levels over time, as the production costs of goods and services drop sharply while productivity growth rises. Therefore, in the long run, the net effect on nominal bond yields may offset each other. He believes that even the U.S. external debt is sustainable because the larger current account deficit caused by a surge in technology-driven capital expenditure will be compensated by capital inflows into dollar assets. At that time, the U.S. will look like an emerging market economy, where a boom in natural resources or productivity brings an investment frenzy. (Jin10)