Recent market analysis: Bitcoin has fallen below a key support level, and the market is on high alert, preparing for a situation with no interest rate cuts.

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As the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum weaken, the cryptocurrency market continues to decline. Analysts warn that liquidity remains tight and market sentiment is trending weak ahead of the December interest rate decision announcement.

Three key points

• As selling pressure increases and buying momentum weakens, Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen larger declines, indicating a decrease in market confidence and a deterioration of short-term market sentiment.

• Market leaders emphasize liquidity pressures, changes in interest rate expectations, and structural pressures rather than panic selling, indicating that the cycle may still be in the mid-term stage.

• Due to the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's decision in December, it may be wiser to act cautiously and control positions rather than predict a short-term bottom.

The cryptocurrency market remained difficult yesterday, with market sentiment continuing to shift towards caution.

The decline of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) has widened, reflecting that buyers are still hesitant and selling pressure is dominant. Unlike previous crashes, this decline resembles a steady and controlled correction. This indicates that leverage is quietly decreasing rather than being aggressively liquidated.

The recent price movements of Bitcoin highlight this pattern. Earlier this week, Bitcoin attempted multiple times to return to a high but failed each time, and momentum further weakened. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading in the range of $89,500 to $89,600, down again from last week's level. Ethereum's movements are almost identical to Bitcoin's, failing to break free from Bitcoin's constraints and unable to find effective support levels.

The tone of the entire market has shifted: declines are no longer seen as buying opportunities but have instead triggered silence and caution — indicating weak market confidence.

Last 24 hours: Data confirms the market's weakness trend.

In the past 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has continued to decline.

From the 4-hour chart, the structure shows persistent downward pressure accompanied by an increasing selling volume. Several brief attempts at rebounds quickly faded, indicating a lack of confidence from buyers. The larger sell orders and continuously rising trading volume suggest that this move may not be driven solely by retail sentiment.

Since November 14, Bitcoin has shown a distinct trend pattern: highs are consistently declining, the strength of rebounds is weakening, and the supply is gradually increasing. If this trend continues, traders may focus on deeper structural support areas rather than anticipating a quick price rebound.

The decline has not caused panic, but it has indeed brought about weakness. This alone is enough to make investors who expect a stronger rebound by the end of the year feel uneasy.

What do market leaders say?

Some notable figures have commented on the current market situation, providing background information beyond the charts.

Fundstrat's Tom Lee attributes the current weak situation to the aftermath of the deleveraging event on October 10. He believes that market makers' balance sheets may still be impaired, leading to a temporary liquidity shortage similar to quantitative tightening in the cryptocurrency space. However, Lee maintains that the current cycle has not yet reached its final peak, noting that the real top may still be one to three years away.

Arthur Hayes holds a more cautious view. He points out that the decline in Bitcoin while the stock market remains high may indicate that credit pressure is brewing. His liquidity model shows a weakening dollar. If policymakers intervene before liquidity tightens further, the price of Bitcoin could drop to a high of over $80,000. However, Hayes believes that once liquidity is restored, Bitcoin is still expected to experience a strong long-term upward trend.

Cathie Wood remains optimistic about Bitcoin as an asset class. Although she acknowledges the competition within the ecosystem—particularly from stablecoins—she still views Bitcoin as a long-term macro asset rather than a speculative cyclical product.

These points collectively indicate that the weakness may be structural rather than sentimental—driven by liquidity mechanisms rather than by a weakening of confidence.

The Federal Reserve's December decision has a significant impact on market sentiment.

The uncertainty brought about by the upcoming decision of the Federal Reserve has become another pressure point.

The probability of not lowering interest rates in December has significantly increased, becoming a common expectation in traditional markets and forecasting platforms. Despite the recent political turmoil, traders seem to be more focused on data and central bank communications.

This shift is significant for asset classes closely related to liquidity conditions. Prolonged high interest rates will suppress speculative desires, reduce leverage, and accelerate hedging behavior—all of which are now evident in the digital asset market.

Is this the market bottom?

It seems too early to assert that the market has bottomed out. The current market environment lacks the typical characteristics of the end of a cycle: forced liquidations, capitulation selling, extreme panic, or severe valuation dislocation. Instead, the market appears to be slowly trending downwards, seeking stability amid ongoing liquidity contraction.

But this does not mean that long-term investment strategies have become ineffective. Instead, it means that timing is crucial—entering the market hastily based on assumptions rather than signals increases risk.

Looking to the future

Currently, it seems that acting cautiously may be more appropriate than aggressively building positions. Gradually building positions, maintaining flexibility, and avoiding leverage may be wiser in the coming weeks.

The next round of expansion will eventually come - but the market may need to go through a winter cycle to regain momentum. Before that, patience is not a sign of weakness.

This is self-discipline.