XRP Price Prediction: Seven Consecutive Falls End! Franklin XRP ETF First Day Volume May Reach $250 Million

On November 18, 2025, XRP finally experienced a strong rebound after enduring seven consecutive days of decline, with a single-day rise of 2.49%, closing at 2.2179 USD. This rebound was mainly driven by Franklin Templeton submitting the final documents for the XRP Spot ETF, optimistic market sentiment towards crypto-friendly legislation, and bargain buying.

Analysts predict that the trading volume of the Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) on its first day could reach $150-250 million, which is five times the previous trading volume of the Canary XRP ETF on its first day. Meanwhile, the U.S. Market Structure Bill has entered a critical stage before the Senate vote, and if passed, it will provide a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets such as XRP.

XRP ETF Wave and Institutional Demand Explosion

The 8-A form submitted by Franklin Templeton on November 19 marks the final listing preparation stage for its XRP Spot ETF, which is also the last step for the asset management giant to complete the product launch. As an industry giant managing $15 trillion in assets, Franklin Templeton's entry is interpreted by the market as an important signal of institutional demand for XRP. Renowned encryption commentator Jungle Inc Crypto News pointed out that analysts expect the first-day trading volume of the Franklin XRP ETF could reach $150 to $250 million, which is five times the first-day trading volume of the previous Canary XRP ETF.

This expectation is based on a solid market foundation. Although in November, Bitcoin Spot ETF experienced a net outflow of $2.58 billion, the market has shown unique interest in ETF products for alternative encryption assets like XRP. From the perspective of fund flows, institutional investors are diversifying their encryption asset allocation and are no longer limiting their focus to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Franklin Templeton's brand influence and distribution network provide strong assurance for the success of its XRP ETF, especially its coverage capability in the channel of professional financial advisors, which has traditionally been cautious in allocating to encryption assets.

Encryption Legislation Progress and Policy Environment Improvement

While the market focuses on the dynamics of the ETF, legislative progress in Washington, D.C. has also created a favorable environment for XRP. Senator Tim Scott recently expressed his views on the banking aspects of the market structure bill for the first time, clarifying the legislative timeline: the Banking and AG committees will revise and vote next month, and are expected to submit it to the full Senate for consideration early next year. This timeline provides the market with clear policy expectations and reduces regulatory uncertainty.

Looking back at history, the market structure bill has previously shown a significant impact on the price of XRP. After the House of Representatives passed the bill on July 17 and submitted it to the Senate, XRP surged by 14.69% in a single day. This price reaction reflects the market's positive expectations for crypto-friendly legislation. If the bill is ultimately passed, it will provide clearer regulatory classifications for digital assets such as XRP, resolving the long-standing securities attribute disputes that have troubled the industry, thereby clearing obstacles for more traditional financial institutions to participate in the market.

XRP key technical levels and market sentiment

Support levels: 2.2 USD, 2.0 USD, 1.9 USD

Resistance levels: $2.35, $2.5, $2.62, $2.8, $3.0, $3.66

50-day EMA Resistance: 2.4726 USD

200-day EMA resistance: $2.5574

Market sentiment: Santiment data shows that wallets holding less than 100 XRP have reduced their holdings by 1.38% since early November, with retail panic selling seen as a precursor to a Rebound.

XRP Technical Analysis and Price Outlook

From a technical analysis perspective, XRP successfully reclaimed the key psychological level of $2.2 on Tuesday, marking a potential beginning of recovery from November losses. Despite the rebound, XRP is still trading below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, confirming that the short-term bearish momentum has not fully reversed. Traders are closely watching several key price catalysts that could drive XRP towards the $2.5 level.

In the short term, price movements will be influenced by multiple factors. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and policy signals will shape the macro backdrop. The launch of the XRP ETF by Franklin and Bitwise, along with the flow of funds, will directly reflect the strength of institutional demand. The stance of blue-chip companies regarding XRP as a reserve asset, as well as Ripple's progress in applying for a U.S. chartered bank license, may also become significant sources of market volatility. From a technical structure perspective, $2.2 has become a key support level recently, and falling below this level may open up further downside potential.

XRP Market Structure and Capital Flow Changes

The current encryption market is undergoing a significant structural transformation. Santiment's market intelligence shows that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are all displaying good signs of a potential Rebound, while retail investors are selling off these three assets. Historical data indicates that price trends often move in the opposite direction to the behavior of small wallets, so the continued panic selling by retail traders is seen as a positive signal for the recovery of the encryption market.

From the perspective of capital flow, institutional investors and retail investors are showing starkly different behavior patterns. Although retail investors continue to reduce their holdings, institutions are increasingly willing to allocate through ETF channels. This divergence reflects the differences in risk-return assessments and time horizons between different investor groups. For long-term institutional investors, the current price level presents an attractive entry opportunity, while retail investors are more affected by short-term price fluctuations. This structural shift in capital flow may lay the foundation for future price trends.

Analysis of XRP Risk Factors and Challenges

Despite the improvement in short-term prospects, XRP still faces several potential risks. The hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve's meetings and officials' speeches may reinforce expectations of monetary policy tightening, putting pressure on risk assets. If there is a net outflow of funds from the XRP Spot ETF, it will directly question the sustainability of institutional demand. The obstacles to crypto-friendly legislation in the U.S. Senate (including the market structure bill) may also undermine market confidence.

From a fundamental perspective, the denial by blue-chip companies of the possibility of XRP being a reserve asset or the delay or rejection of Ripple's application for a U.S. charter bank license by the currency regulatory agency will negatively impact the adoption prospects of XRP. These risk factors may drive XRP to test the $2.2 support level. If this level is breached, the lower trend line will become the next key support, and a break below the trend line may expose the psychological support level of $2. The repeated failures to break through the upper trend line in October resulted in lower highs and lows, and this technical pattern requires vigilance.

XRP Industry Trends and Competitive Landscape

In the broader context of the encryption industry, the development path of XRP exhibits unique characteristics. Unlike many crypto assets that rely on mining and staking mechanisms, XRP's consensus mechanism and distribution model provide it with a relative advantage in regulatory compliance. Ripple's ongoing communication with regulatory authorities in various countries and its practical applications in the cross-border payment sector place XRP in a leading position for integration with traditional finance.

From the competitive landscape, XRP is competing with other major encryption assets for the attention and funds of institutional investors. Bitcoin continues to be the preferred entry point for institutions, while Ethereum maintains a unique advantage due to its status as a smart contract platform. XRP has established a differentiated position in the payments and settlement space. As more assets are approved for spot ETFs, institutional investors will face a richer array of allocation choices, which also means that various assets need to more clearly demonstrate their value propositions and competitive advantages.

Franklin Templeton may be witnessing an important turning point in the encryption market as it launches the XRP ETF—institutional demand is no longer limited to Bitcoin and is beginning to expand into a broader spectrum of digital assets. The seven-day continuous fall and single-day rebound of XRP is a microcosm of this shift: while retail investors panic and sell off, institutions are quietly positioning themselves. This subtle change in investor structure may be more worth paying attention to than short-term price fluctuations.

FAQ

What is the significance of Franklin Templeton's XRP ETF?

As a traditional financial giant managing $1.5 trillion in assets, Franklin's entry marks a recognition of XRP by mainstream financial institutions, and its distribution network can bring unprecedented institutional capital access to XRP.

How does the market structure bill affect the price of XRP?

After the House of Representatives passed the bill in July, XRP surged 14.69% in a single day. If the Senate passes it, it will provide regulatory clarity, resolve disputes over securities attributes, and greatly boost institutional confidence.

Where is the current key technical level of XRP?

$2.2 is a key support, with resistance at $2.4726 for the 50-day EMA and $2.5574 for the 200-day EMA. A breakout above $2.35 could open the way to $2.5.

What risks could affect the recovery of XRP?

The hawkish Federal Reserve policy, ETF capital outflows, legislative hurdles, companies not adopting it as reserve assets, and bank license refusals may drive XRP to test the support at $2.2.

What are the differences between institutional and retail investor behavior?

Santiment data shows that retail continues to panic sell while institutions are increasing their holdings through ETF. This divergence is often a signal of a market bottom, and price trends often move in the opposite direction of small wallet behavior.