Trump calls the next Federal Reserve chair nominee decided: to be announced before Christmas, wants to replace Powell but someone is obstructing me.

Trump said that he has locked in the chairman of the Federal Reserve and finalized it before the end of the year; Markets are betting on interest rate cuts accelerating and risks heating up. (Synopsis: Raoul Pal warns: Fed will no longer print money QE “liquidity will be short”, or repeat the 2018 repo market financial crisis) (Background supplement: The United States releases the September non-farm payrolls report next week, and the market is closely watching the impact of the Fed's (Fed) interest rate cut) US President Trump said at the White House that he has decided on the next Fed chairman, He also revealed that he wanted to replace the current chairman Powell immediately, but he said that “someone is holding me back” in the process. Past selections have been led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which means that Trump has made a list of five people: current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former governor Kevin Warsh, White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett and BlackRock fixed income director Rick Rieder. Bessent also released the process in the media: Enter the second round of interviews at the White House after Thanksgiving, and the president will meet with the final three in mid-December to give answers before Christmas. This echoes Trump's repeated hints in the mid-year timeline (“may be announced ahead of schedule”), highlighting the White House's intention to accelerate tone setting and the constant pull of the political schedule on monetary policy. Since the middle of the year, Trump's employment criteria have been consistent, preferring to choose a chairman who supports interest rate cuts, which directly touches the sensitive core of the Fed's independence. This political signal caused the market to readjust its pricing in the future path of interest rates after each progress and conversation with the candidate. Five possible candidate profiles, who does Trump mean? In terms of Fed independence and market confidence, Trump's repeated public calls for a “biased interest rate cut” chairman are conducive to the short-term sentiment of risk assets, but in the medium term depends on whether the new chairman can maintain credibility in terms of policy framework, communication and enforcement discipline: once the market determines that policy objectives are driven by short-term politics, the interest rate curve may be unstable repriced, resulting in tighter and looser financial conditions, which in turn increases volatility and financing costs. Christopher Waller: In the past two years, there has been a shift from “hardliners at inflation highs” to support gradual interest rate cuts after inflation has rebounded. In his November speech in London, he put forward the “case for continued interest rate cuts”, arguing that the labor market is weak, inflation expectations are still anchored, and the impact of tariffs is more like a one-time price increase than persistent inflation, advocating a risk management framework to promote easing; If led by him, interest rate decisions may be more biased towards prudent data-driven rate cuts and predictability in market communications. Michelle Bowman: In the past, he focused on financial regulation and regional banking issues, and his monetary policy stance was relatively prudent and conservative; If led by her, the pace may place more emphasis on observing employment and financial stability risks, and the pace of interest rate cuts may be slow and controllable. Kevin Warsh: A former director from financial markets, he has always been more sensitive to inflation and asset bubbles, and tends to take early precautions when risks rise; The policies under his leadership are likely to be more vigilant against balance sheet reduction (QT) and tightening of financial conditions. Kevin Hassett: Strong in policy communication and supply-side frameworks, with a systematic perspective on productivity, capital formation, and tax impacts; Its monetary policy may place more emphasis on medium-term growth momentum and corporate investment behavior. Rick Rieder: Head of fixed income at the world's largest asset management company, he has a long-term focus on interest rates, inflation and the credit cycle, and has publicly discussed “real interest rates” and market structural changes many times; If it is in charge, the decision will attach great importance to the link between market liquidity and pricing mechanism, and the interest rate path is more likely to take into account market tolerance. Legal question: Can the president remove Powell immediately? In legal theory, members of the Federal Reserve (including the chairman) are mostly regarded as “for cause” only, rather than arbitrarily removed from office; Historical jurisprudence and academic circles mostly believe that if the president tries to remove him without cause, it will inevitably lead to constitutional and legal disputes, and pose a new uncertain impact on market stability. In other words, even if Trump prefers an “immediate replacement,” a more feasible path in practice would be to take over at the end of his term (President Powell's term until May 2026) or to shape the direction of policy during the transition period through political and procedural means. The media has also speculated about the procedural and market reactions if the president tries to remove him: including court proceedings, the Fed's internal governance, and the reassessment of independence in financial markets, which may lead to higher volatility and safe-haven repricing of the dollar and interest rates in the short term. Therefore, the current “normative process” schedule released by the White House is relatively predictable for the market. Candidate reaction and market expectations The cryptocurrency market is generally more sensitive to interest rate cut expectations and the weakening of the US dollar, if market-friendly, data-oriented candidates such as Waller or Rieder come out, interest rate cuts and slowdown QT expectations heat up, the short-term helps the risk appetite of Bitcoin and large public chains; Conversely, if the more conservative framework of the Bowman/Warsh type, artificial uncertainty and tight financial conditions may suppress the liquidity and valuation extension of small and medium-sized tokens. As far as stablecoins and payments are concerned, Waller has had reservations about CBDCs in the past, but is open to the efficiency of “synthetic money (stablecoins)”, and once he leads, the supervision path may focus more on the balance between risk control and system efficiency. Short-term logic of U.S. technology stocks: If the market is pricing in a faster interest rate cut in the first half of 2026 and a downward revision of the discount rate for AI and high-growth stocks, valuations are expected to remain on the long side; However, if the dispute over the selection heats up and the independence is questioned, the rise in risk premium may offset the interest rate cut, resulting in greater volatility in the high beta sector. Investors should cross-examine sector weights on three axes: the end of interest rates, the pace of interest rate cuts and the rate of balance sheet contraction. Investors should pay attention to risk exposure and leverage in the announcement window around Christmas, and crypto assets should take mainstream currencies as the core, control the exposure to small currencies, and avoid expanding the risk of volatility during the period of rising policy uncertainty. Taken together, the transparency of candidates and processes is the key to market volatility. If the White House maintains the scheduled interview and announcement schedule, risk assets can reduce uncertainty through clearer policy signals and communication amid the tension of “interest rate cut expectations - independence concerns”; Conversely, if there is a sudden change in procedures or a legal battle, financial conditions may be sharply tightened in stages, risk assets may be under pressure and volatility will rise, and investors need to pre-set the hedging mechanism. Related reports Fed microphone warning: Fed has no consensus on December interest rate cut, message black box has become an unexploded bomb Damo warning: Fed ends QT ≠ restart QE, the US Treasury's bond issuance strategy is the key Fed hawks | Bostic, who advocates “no interest rate cut in December”, announced his retirement in February next year (Trump shouts that the next Fed chairman has been decided: announced before Christmas, I want to replace Bauer but someone hinders me) This article was first published in the moving area BlockTempo The most influential blockchain news media.