XRP Price Prediction: TradFi Retreats, Top Four Position at Risk in $2.20 Life-and-Death Battle

XRP is currently trading at $2.20, with a market capitalization of $134.7 billion, maintaining its position as the fourth largest crypto asset. However, the overall market atmosphere surrounding XRP has clearly changed. The SEC has released new guidance allowing ETF issuers to expedite submissions, and Bitwise's XRP ETF application may receive priority approval, but the gap between the sentiment in the TradFi market and the enthusiasm of native crypto asset users continues to widen.

SEC accelerates approval to pave the way for XRP ETF

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has issued new guidance allowing ETF issuers to expedite the submission of documents that were delayed during the recent government shutdown, marking the strongest indication that the regulatory body is preparing to accelerate the regulation of crypto assets products. The timing is significant, as Bitwise's Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have been successful, and they are currently actively preparing to launch an XRP ETF.

Despite the SEC's long-standing cautious attitude towards XRP-related products, a recent court ruling confirmed that XRP is not classified as a security in the secondary market, which strengthens the regulatory status of the token. This legal breakthrough has cleared the biggest obstacle for the launch of the XRP ETF. Analysts from Bloomberg and Coin Bureau noted that the SEC's newly introduced “fast track” may prioritize the approval of Bitwise's XRP application.

If approved, this will be the first large institutional product linked to the Ripple ecosystem and will help stabilize market sentiment during a time when capital flows in TradFi appear hesitant. The launch of the XRP ETF could replicate the capital inflow effect seen after the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, injecting new demand for XRP. From the perspective of XRP price predictions, ETF approval is the most important potential catalyst.

XRP ETF Key Driving Factors

SEC Accelerated Approval Window: Fast-track mechanism after government shutdown

Bitwise ETF Driven by BTC and ETH: There are successful cases providing templates.

Demand for Alternative Large Digital Assets in the Market: Institutions Seeking Diversified Allocation Options

Increased Legal Certainty: The ruling on non-securities in the secondary market eliminates regulatory uncertainty.

However, the timing and impact of the ETF approval still have variables. The SEC's “fast track” does not guarantee immediate approval, and the review process may still take months. In addition, even if the ETF is approved, the scale of initial capital inflow is also difficult to predict. Investors should view the ETF as a long-term positive rather than a short-term speculative point.

TradFi funds hesitate, XRP's top four position is challenged

Despite regulatory bodies holding an optimistic attitude, XRP still faces changes in traditional investment portfolios. Some macro investment departments have reduced their investments in large altcoins, pointing out that returns in 2025 are more inclined towards Bitcoin, Solana, and AI-related tokens. This market rotation has led to weakened institutional investment willingness, exerting negative pressure on XRP price forecasts.

Ripple's global partnerships, especially in the cross-border settlement space, continue to expand, but this has not fully translated into sustained market demand. The chart reflects this hesitation: a broad consolidation range, lower short-term highs, and a decline in trading volume. This divergence between fundamentals and price performance is not uncommon in the history of XRP, which has experienced explosive price increases after prolonged periods of sideways movement.

The hesitation of traditional financial funding stems from several factors. First is narrative fatigue; the story of XRP's “cross-border payment revolution” has been told for many years, but the actual scale of application has not grown as quickly as initially expected. Second is increased competition; Stellar, Algorand, and even stablecoins like USDC are competing with XRP in the cross-border payment space. Third is opportunity cost; as emerging sectors like Solana and AI tokens demonstrate higher growth potential, funds naturally flow toward these areas.

Even so, analysts believe that the overall structure of XRP remains intact, and any progress on an ETF could quickly reignite institutional investors' interest. The market capitalization and liquidity of XRP make it an important option for institutions when allocating crypto assets, with the key being when the catalyst will appear. From the perspective of XRP price forecasts, the current lull may be the calm before the storm.

Technical Triangle Convergence Waiting for Direction Choice

(Source: Trading View)

XRP price prediction remains neutral as XRP contracts within a clearly symmetric triangle, trading near $2.20. The ascending trend line since late October continues to attract buyers, and the repeatedly appearing long lower shadows confirm this. However, the 20-day moving average still limits the upside potential, while a series of lower highs indicates persistent selling pressure.

The symmetrical triangle is a classic consolidation pattern in technical analysis, typically appearing before a trend continuation or reversal. When the price oscillates within the triangle, the volatility gradually narrows, indicating that the forces of bulls and bears are approaching balance, but ultimately a directional breakout is inevitable. Statistically, the probability of the breakout direction being consistent with the previous trend direction is relatively high, but in the cryptocurrency market, the reliability of this pattern is lower.

The RSI is close to 40, confirming that momentum is weakening, but there has not yet been a bullish divergence, indicating that traders will remain cautious until the market breaks structure. The RSI hovering around 40 means the market is weak but not yet oversold; this state could either be a continuation of the decline or the final consolidation before a bottom is formed. The key is whether the price can complete the consolidation without making new lows.

The change in trading volume is an important indicator for judging the validity of a breakout. If the trading volume increases significantly during a breakout, especially when breaking above resistance, it usually confirms the validity of the breakout. Conversely, if the volume shrinks during the breakout, it may just be a false breakout, and the price will quickly return inside the triangle. Currently, the trading volume of XRP shows a downward trend, which is consistent with the typical characteristics of a triangle convergence period.

Double scenario of breaking through 2.33 USD or falling below 2.19 USD

A breakout requires the daily closing price to be higher than $2.33, thereby opening the path to $2.52 or even $2.69 (the target price of the triangle pattern). The target price after a breakout from the triangle pattern is usually the height of the pattern plus the breakout point. Based on the current triangular structure of XRP, the theoretical target after breaking through $2.33 is indeed around $2.69, which would represent an upside potential of about 20% from the current price.

This breakthrough scenario requires several conditions. First is positive news regarding ETF progress; if Bitwise's XRP ETF receives SEC approval or the review process accelerates, it will inject confidence into the market. Secondly, substantial progress in Ripple's partnerships, especially collaborations with large financial institutions or central banks. Thirdly, an improvement in the overall encryption market sentiment; if Bitcoin can break through and stabilize at new highs, it often drives altcoins to rise.

The opposite scenario also needs to be considered. If it breaks below $2.19, it may trigger a drop to $2.06, which is the next major liquidity gap. $2.06 is a key support level from the previous consolidation, and if it fails to hold, it will open up greater downward space. A deeper support level may be in the range of $1.80 to $1.90, which is the starting point for XRP before this round of increase.

XRP Dual Scenario Path

Bullish Scenario: Daily close breaks above 2.33 USD → Target 2.52 USD → Extend to 2.69 USD

Bearish Scenario: Break below $2.19 → Test $2.06 → Possible drop to $1.80 to $1.90

With the speculation surrounding ETFs soaring, the topic of Crypto Assets has also shifted to new themes, including blockchain centered around artificial intelligence and early presales. The breakout of XRP may trigger a broader rally in altcoins. The current question is whether XRP can maintain its position among the top four, or whether a shift in investor demand will force a reassessment of market expectations. From the current technical and funding perspectives, XRP is at a critical turning point, and the price movements in the coming weeks will determine its medium-term fate.