Gate on-chain observation ( November 4 ): Bitmine, SharpLink's Ether holdings unrealized losses exceed 1.9 billion USD; Whale returns to the battlefield buying 800 BTC.

In the past 24 hours, the crypto market sentiment has entered a period of calm observation amid intense fluctuations. Bitcoin's price has remained around $104,000, with volatility dropping to a lower level, but on-chain whales are becoming active again, indicating that a directional market turning point is imminent. Ethereum, on the other hand, faced massive unrealized losses and leveraged liquidations after falling below $3,500; the funds rotation in the DeFi and altcoin zones has become cautious, with some whale short positions continuing to dominate the situation. Overall, the market is in a short to mid-term adjustment phase of 'funds flowing back to BTC and risk appetite contracting.'

1. BTC Market Trends and Analysis

Whale Restarts Accumulation, Potential Reversal Signal Emerges A whale address that has been dormant since selling BTC in November last year became active again today, buying 800 BTC at an average price of $106,060 (approximately $84.87 million). According to EmberCN analysis, this address has accumulated profits of $120 million through three rounds of swing trading between 2022 and 2024, marking its fourth restart of positioning. Market analysts believe that the re-entry of such “periodic high-win-rate whales” often indicates that a mid-term bottom is forming.

Mainstream Institutional Flow: BlackRock's Fund Movements Attract Attention BlackRock's IBIT address deposited 1,198 BTC (approximately $129 million) into a mainstream CEX.

Institutional analysts point out that this operation may be related to capital flow restructuring or market-making activities in the ETF market. In the short term, although there is no direct selling pressure, its synchronous transfer behavior with ETH (as detailed later) may imply an increase in short-term liquidity demand.

Famous whale sells off again

Whale Owen Gunden has deposited 1288.76 BTC worth 138.23 million USD to CEX once again. He still holds 7150 BTC worth 761.81 million USD.

Derivatives Market: Direction Still to Be Confirmed Data shows that the distribution of long and short positions on Hyperliquid tends to be balanced. A trader known as “1011 Insider Whale” deposited 20 million USDC as margin to open a 3x leveraged BTC long position (holding 350 BTC, valued at 37.29 million USD, with an opening average price of 106,002 USD), currently with an unrealized profit of about 256,000 USD. On-chain intelligence indicates that some smart money is starting to leverage during low volatility periods, suggesting they anticipate a short-term breakout is imminent.

2. ETH Market Dynamics and Analysis

The major losses of treasury funds have expanded, and market confidence is under pressure As ETH falls below $3,500, two major treasury companies have experienced significant unrealized losses:

• Bitmine holds 3,395,422 ETH (1.188 billion USD), with an average cost of 4,037 USD, resulting in unrealized losses of 1.82 billion USD;
• SharpLink holds 860,299 ETH (3.01 billion USD), with an average cost of 3,609 USD, resulting in unrealized losses of 93.77 million USD. This data indicates that even long-term strategic holders are affected by short-term market corrections, putting pressure on sentiment.

Whale Group Diversification: Bottom Fishing and Liquidation Coexist

• The bottom-fishing faction “7 Siblings” bought 15,092 ETH at an average price of $3,654 (worth $55.15 million), bringing their total holdings to 128,205 ETH (approximately $464 million).
• In contrast, “Mahji Brother” Huang Licheng's 2,500 ETH long position was forcibly liquidated at $3,760, resulting in a loss of $1.07 million. Since October, his Hyperliquid account has accumulated losses of up to $13.33 million.

On-chain data shows that the long-short divergence of ETH has reached a monthly high, and there is a significant divergence in trading logic among the Whale group.

Smart money reduces positions, winning streak ends The trader known as the “100% win rate Whale” closed long positions of 258 million USD in BTC, ETH, and SOL, realizing a loss of 15.65 million USD, ending the winning streak. Currently, they still hold long positions worth 148 million USD (mainly in ETH, SOL, and HYPE), with unrealized losses of 18.86 million USD. This move reinforces the market's short-term bearish sentiment, indicating that high win rate accounts are shifting to a defensive posture.

Increased Risk Exposure Related to DeFi The address nemorino.eth chose to sell 8,000 ETH in the early morning through leveraged operations with circular loans, repaying a loan of 24.83 million USD and profiting 7.58 million USD. Analysts point out that the proactive deleveraging behavior of long-position leveraged traders often appears before a mid-term trend reversal.

3. Altcoin Market Trends and Analysis

Aster Becomes the Focus of Capital Games The Aster market is experiencing severe fluctuations, with prices falling below $1, leading to a complete advantage for short positions. Two whales, “0x9ee” and “0xBAD”, have a total unrealized gains of $11.9 million on their short positions (of which “0x9ee” has unrealized gains of $9.3 million and “0xBAD” has unrealized gains of $2.6 million). Another whale deposited 6.8 million ASTER (approximately $5.57 million) into a CEX, currently incurring a loss of $1.08 million, indicating that some speculative long positions have chosen to recognize losses and exit.

Signs of Rotation in Meme and Small-cap Coins Weaken All long positions in the three coins of “HYPE Insider Whale” have turned into losses, with HYPE long positions showing unrealized losses of $450,000 and XPL long positions showing unrealized losses of $2.7 million. Although the leader address of “Whale Hunting Squad” (0x49E) is still ambushing XPL with a low leverage at an average price of $0.277, overall liquidity is weakening, and community sentiment is declining.

Frequent liquidations of ZEC contracts, evident hedging behavior On Hyperliquid, eight out of the top ten whales holding ZEC contracts are in short positions, with losses ranging from 15% to 300%. The largest short position, “0xd47”, holds $21 million, with unrealized losses of $8 million; while the largest long position, “0x549”, holds $13.6 million, with unrealized gains of $3 million. Additionally, a new wallet has deposited 7.9 million USDC and is going long on ZEC with 5x leverage, continuing to increase its position in batches.

The hedging structure of the ZEC market shows that institutional funds are playing within the range of fluctuations, and the direction is not yet clear.

4. Market Overview and Trend Analysis

Market Overview: In the past 24 hours, the return of BTC Whales contrasts sharply with the unrealized losses in ETH treasury. On-chain buying of BTC has rebounded but has not yet formed breakthrough momentum; the ETH market is dominated by liquidation and deleveraging, with short-term funds moving towards stable assets. Alts such as Aster and ZEC have amplified fluctuations, but overall trading depth has decreased, and risk appetite is weakening.

Trend Analysis:

• Short-term (1-3 days): It is expected that BTC will fluctuate within the $105,000 - $108,000 range, and if it breaks through the upper limit, it may trigger a chain liquidation of short positions; if ETH cannot recover $3,600, it will face further pullback pressure.
• Mid-term (1 week): The re-establishment of positions by smart money alongside institutional flows suggests that the market is accumulating energy; if volatility continues to compress, December may welcome a directional breakthrough.

V. Conclusion

As the market's hustle and bustle gradually subsides, on-chain signals are more honest than prices. The funds of whales begin to flow back, and Bitcoin's silence may be the calm before the storm; meanwhile, Ethereum's growing pains remind people that a true bull market is never something everyone can bear. The current on-chain landscape resembles a game waiting to be detonated, with winners still in the process of positioning themselves.