Quantum computing threatens Bitcoin! Experts warn that Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.1 million BTC may be stolen.

As quantum computing gets closer to cracking the encryption core of Bitcoin, Bitcoin is facing a serious survival threat. A recent report by the Human Rights Foundation (HRF) shows that approximately 6.5 million Bitcoins are vulnerable to “remote” quantum attacks. Theoretically, Bitcoin holders can protect 4.49 million of them by migrating their balances to quantum-resistant addresses, but 1.7 million, including 1.1 million of Satoshi Nakamoto, will be frozen.

How Quantum Computing Threatens Bitcoin Security

(Source: Human Rights Foundation, Presidio Bitcoin)

Quantum computing is no longer just a science fiction novel or a cyberpunk fantasy; it has officially become a significant threat to the world's first borderless currency—Bitcoin. If you ever thought that Satoshi Nakamoto's creation would be immune to existential threats, you are gravely mistaken. In the latest report from the Human Rights Foundation, Bitcoin supporters and cryptographers have expressed their concerns about this.

Quantum threats primarily manifest in two aspects: “remote attacks” and “local attacks”. The target of remote attacks is dormant and reused addresses, exploiting exposed public keys for the attack. The elliptic curve encryption (ECDSA) of Bitcoin relies on the unidirectionality of calculating public keys from private keys, which would take traditional computers billions of years to crack, but quantum computers could theoretically complete it in a matter of hours. Once the public key is exposed (which happens after any expenditure transaction), a quantum attacker can reverse-calculate the private key, thus controlling all funds associated with that address.

Short-range attacks exploit the transaction window. When a user initiates a Bitcoin transaction, the transaction is broadcast to the network and waits for miners to confirm, with this time window usually being 10 minutes. If an attacker can calculate the private key using a quantum computer within these 10 minutes, they can steal funds before the original transaction is confirmed. This type of attack is more difficult, but with the improvement of quantum computer performance, it may become a reality in the future.

Quantum Computing Attack Modes on Bitcoin

Remote Attack: For dormant addresses with exposed public keys, attackers have ample time to use quantum computers to crack the private keys.

Proximity Attack: Calculate the private key instantly within the 10-minute window of transaction confirmation to steal funds in advance.

Quantum computing poses a risk to Bitcoin, valued at nearly $700 billion. This figure is calculated based on the current total market cap of Bitcoin and the proportion of vulnerable addresses. Additionally, 4.49 million Bitcoins can only be secured if holders take swift action to migrate to quantum-resistant addresses. This requires users to actively initiate transactions to transfer their balances from old addresses to new quantum-safe addresses, but many holders may not even be aware of the existence of this risk.

Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.1 million BTC permanent exposure risk

The problem is: this means that 1.7 million Bitcoins, including the legendary 1.1 million of Satoshi Nakamoto, will be frozen in the river of time, and once quantum attacks break out, they will face the risk of being stolen. The reason Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoins cannot be protected is that these coins are stored in the earliest P2PK (Pay-to-Public-Key) addresses, which directly expose the public key and cannot be protected through migration.

Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.1 million Bitcoins have always been a legend in the Bitcoin community. These coins have never moved since they were mined in 2009, and many believe that Satoshi Nakamoto has permanently lost the private keys or chose to permanently lock them as a “genesis contribution.” However, the advent of quantum computing has changed this narrative. If quantum attackers can crack the private keys of these addresses, they would control approximately 5% of the total Bitcoin supply, which would be enough to cause catastrophic effects on the market.

The broader 1.7 million vulnerable Bitcoins include addresses from early miners who lost their private keys, long-unused dormant wallets, and historical assets using outdated address formats. The holders of these Bitcoins have either lost access or are unaware that their assets are at risk. For the Bitcoin network, the fate of these coins has sparked profound philosophical and ethical debates.

The debate over “destruction or theft” is intensifying: Should developers attempt to destroy encryption currencies that are vulnerable to quantum attacks, freeze them, or let quantum thieves take the lost wallets? There are differing opinions on this, which is not surprising for a project obsessed with ownership, anti-censorship, and anti-governance. Destroying or freezing these coins would violate the core principles of Bitcoin—immutability and the sanctity of ownership. However, ignoring the issue could allow quantum attackers to amass huge wealth, delivering a devastating blow to the value and trust in Bitcoin.

Technical and Governance Challenges of Quantum-Safe Upgrade

(Source: Human Rights Foundation, Presidio Bitcoin)

Switching to quantum-safe algorithms is not merely a technical sideline. HRF highlights two types of solutions: lattice-based signature schemes and hash-based signature schemes, each with its own advantages and disadvantages. Larger keys mean larger transactions, a reduced number of transactions per block, a heavier load on full nodes, and are likely to open a new chapter in the debate over Bitcoin scalability.

As a reference, signatures based on the grid are about ten times larger than existing signatures, while the most compact hash-based alternatives are 38 times larger. This scale of increase would be catastrophic for the Bitcoin blockchain. Currently, the Bitcoin block size limit is 1MB, with an average of about 2000-3000 transactions per block. If the signature size for each transaction increases by 10 times, the transaction capacity per block would plummet to 200-300 transactions, reducing the throughput of the Bitcoin network from an already limited 3-7 TPS to less than 1 TPS.

Quantum secure transactions will cause the blockchain to expand, turning Bitcoin's scalability issue from a minor annoyance into an unbearable blow. This is not just a technical challenge; it tests whether the Bitcoin network is willing to continuously evolve without compromising its original uniqueness. Any technological improvements require redesigning wallets, updating hardware, retraining node operators, and conducting user education on a global scale.

Coin Metrics co-founder and Bitcoin advocate Nic Carter candidly pointed out in his recent article: “In my view, quantum computing is the biggest risk facing Bitcoin. It is an imminent major issue for many financial systems and various other blockchains, but for Bitcoin, it is a unique, tricky, and difficult problem to solve.”

Governance Dilemma: The Double-Edged Sword of Decentralization

The decentralized upgrade process of Bitcoin is both its greatest advantage and its biggest weakness. Unlike the latest operating system updates from Apple, Bitcoin does not automatically receive security patches. The consensus mechanism means a long and arduous process, often measured in years rather than weeks. Any significant upgrade requires broad consensus from miners, node operators, developers, and users, and this process is extremely slow.

As the report summarizes: “Upgrading Bitcoin to withstand quantum threats is both a cryptographic challenge and a human challenge. Any successful soft fork integrating a quantum-resistant signature scheme will require user education, thorough user interface design, and coordination among a global ecosystem that includes users, developers, hardware manufacturers, node operators, and civil society.”

The community must coordinate programmers, wallet developers, advocacy groups, and millions of skeptical holders (many of whom may not even be aware that the tokens they hold have security vulnerabilities). History shows that even friendly upgrades can take years to complete, and the timeline for quantum computing remains unclear, so the window for taking action may close faster than expected.

For the rebels of Bitcoin, the cypherpunks, and the involuntary exiles, the message is clear: keep learning, keep upgrading, and do not think that Satoshi Nakamoto's armor is invulnerable forever. As Bitcoin security expert, core developer, and Casa co-founder Jameson Lopp warned, the greatest threat to Bitcoin goes beyond quantum computing, and that is apathy.

“If people are indifferent to continuing discussions on how to improve Bitcoin, then Bitcoin will become vulnerable and more susceptible to potential new threats.” This warning reveals the real danger facing Bitcoin: it's not that the technology itself can't be upgraded, but rather that the community may fall into complacency, believing that the existing system is already “good enough” and rejecting necessary changes.

The resilience or vulnerability of Bitcoin

The detailed analysis by the Human Rights Foundation points out that Bitcoin is far more than just a speculative tool. For activists, journalists, and dissenters facing financial repression under authoritarian regimes, it is a lifeline. The decentralization, privacy, and permissionless access of Bitcoin are key to ensuring the smooth flow of donations and avoiding government confiscation of deposits. However, all these wonders rely on strong encryption, and quantum computing is the only technological leap capable of breaking these invisible barriers.

Any lasting solution requires the participation of the grassroots, not just code submissions on GitHub. The fate of forgotten Bitcoin (and perhaps the legitimacy of the entire ecosystem) depends on how the Bitcoin network responds to these political, technical, and social challenges in the next decade. Although researchers are racing to launch quantum-safe upgrade solutions, progress in the Bitcoin realm has been slow.