Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $1.23 billion in a single week! The market bets that the Fed will lower interest rates in October, supporting the psychological barrier of $100,000.

After experiencing four consecutive days of decline, Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded by 0.72% on Saturday, October 18, closing at $107,327. However, due to the escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S. and a net outflow of $1.23 billion from Bitcoin spot ETFs, the BTC price has fallen by 6.16% this month. Nevertheless, the market is still betting with a 99% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates in October, providing crucial support for Bitcoin to maintain the psychological level of $100,000.

External Pressure: The China-U.S. Trade War and Government Shutdown Drag Down Bitcoin Prices

Bitcoin is facing strong selling pressure from multiple external macro factors this week.

Trade tensions escalate, raising concerns about recession.

· Trade war escalation: President Trump threatens to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, exacerbating market concerns about a global economic recession and severely impacting market sentiment.

· Price Volatility: The price of Bitcoin fell from a high of $125,761 reached on October 6 to $103,587 by Friday, October 17.

Government shutdown and regulatory uncertainty

· Government Shutdown: The 19-day U.S. government shutdown may delay the passage of the Market Structure Bill. The lack of a clear regulatory framework has suppressed demand in the crypto market.

Spot ETF Fund Outflows: Market Cautionary Sentiment Rises

Despite the overall net inflow of $3.78 billion into the Bitcoin spot ETF market in October (following the $3.51 billion in September), the recent week's outflow signals a rise in cautious sentiment in the market.

Spot ETF net outflow of 1.23 billion USD

· Short-term pressure: As of the report week ending October 17, last Friday, the US Bitcoin Spot ETF saw a net outflow of $1.23 billion, temporarily pushing the BTC price below $105,000.

· BlackRock stands out: According to data from Farside Investors, BlackRock's IBIT remains the market leader, with a net inflow of 4 billion dollars in October.

· Other ETF performance: Fidelity's FBTC net inflow was $270 million, while Grayscale's GBTC and ARK 21Shares' ARKB recorded net outflows of $580 million respectively.

Fed Interest Rate Cut Expectations: Holding on to the Last Hope of 100,000 Dollars

The outflow of funds from the spot ETF puts pressure on demand, but the market's bets on aggressive rate cuts by the Fed provide key support for BTC above 100,000 dollars.

Market bets on high probability of interest rate cuts

· CME FedWatch Tool: The market expects a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in October, and a 94% probability of a rate cut in December. Additionally, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in December has increased from 0% on October 10 to 6.0%.

· Economic data supports dovish sentiment: The prolonged government shutdown in the United States has further raised expectations for aggressive easing monetary policy. The deterioration of the labor market and the weakness of the U.S. economy may support the Fed in adopting a more dovish interest rate path, which would benefit the demand for Bitcoin and Spot ETF.

Technical Analysis and Key Outlook

Bitcoin is currently still trading below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting a short-term bearish divergence.

Bitcoin analysis and target price

· Upside target: A breakout above the 200-day EMA will aim for $110,000. If it can sustain a breakout above $110,000, it will likely look toward the 50-day EMA and the resistance level of $115,000.

· Downside risk: A fall below $103,576 may expose the psychological support level of $100,000. If this support is lost, the next key support level is at $95,000.

Ethereum weak demand and ETF outflows

As Bitcoin's fall continues, weakness spreads to the broader crypto market, with Ethereum breaking below the psychological support level of 4,000 dollars.

· ETF Outflows: US Ethereum Spot ETF issuers reported a net outflow of 311.8 million USD for the week ending October 17, primarily due to risk aversion triggered by US-China trade tensions.

Key driving factors for the market ahead

Traders should closely monitor the following key events: the U.S. Senate vote on the temporary funding bill, the release of U.S. economic indicators (especially the delayed employment report), the legislative progress of the Market Structure Bill, and the fund flows of the BTC Spot ETF.

Conclusion

Under the dual pressure of global trade conflicts and domestic political uncertainty, Bitcoin is facing severe challenges. Although the $1.23 billion ETF net outflow has raised short-term concerns, the strong expectation of aggressive interest rate cuts by the Fed remains a key pillar supporting BTC prices. The market is at a critical juncture of bulls and bears, and the psychological barrier of $100,000 is crucial.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.